To: Bill Harmond who wrote (8421 ) 3/14/1998 6:52:00 PM From: Michael Collings Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27307
<<All these calculations about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin are not meaningful. You cementheads keep rearranging the deck chairs on your own Titanic. Face it: Yahoo is increasingly being bought by strong, diversified hands. There's a pattern here. This stock is hitting new highs, is under institutional accumulation, and has a growing lead in the fastest-growing industry in the world economy. Shorting hasn't worked. THERE'S A REASON!! >> William: Yes you have hit the reasoning difference between the bears and the bulls. Bulls seem to think this stratospheric rise has something to do with the companies fundamentals and future prospects. And the bears think the rise is due to short squeezes and hype. We bears tend to be cynical types when we see insiders dumping their shares, the lack of earnings and revenues, and a business model that requires them to continue to offer expensive services for free so they can compete for the limited advertising dollars that everyone else is competing for. I for one do not think their existing business model will work and I am not alone in that thinking. There isn't even a consensus among advertisers and the media on a fair way to charge for these services. What kind of business model is that? I think it will be years before meaningful revenue will be generated on the internet aside from the ISP's and a few retailers. Look how many sites are now switching to subscription fees. Everyone is wondering,"how do you make money on the internet?" Until that becomes a universal reality, then everything is hype and based on a hope that someday it will happen. We bears think it will take a long time and in the mean time the stocks race to the moon like those earnings will be there in the next couple of quarters. Yes shorts have contributed to this spectacular rise, by being forced to cover and reducing the supply of stock. And institutions are smart enough to take advantage of this. But I suspect that institutions are unloading shares into this rise and are not so naive to think that a stock should trade today where it MIGHT be worth 5 years from now. However, it is possible that more short squeezes are possible, although not as likely since the sentiment on the internet stocks are starting to shift. No one was saying they are safe havens in the past week. A sector change looks to be in the making. But things like the float and short interest are important to shorts because that tells us the supply. And that is a good indication of how far shorts can be squeezed. That is true of the whole market because bottom line, supply and demand create the price action.