To: kemble s. matter who wrote (34378 ) 3/14/1998 6:21:00 PM From: Chuzzlewit Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 176387
Kemble, Buffet is the icon of the buy and holders. His philosophy produces excellent results. It's just not the kind of approach that's suitable to the hi-tech world. Let's take an example. You could have bought IBM in the early 60's and made a lot of money for awhile. But gradually, IBM lost its technological leadership. By the mid to late 70's it was viewed as a stodgy company with old technology. The hot area became the minicomputer. By the time the early 80's rolled by, IBM had a major chance to reinvent itself with the PC. But it dropped the ball! By the mid 80's companies like Compaq were firmly established as the technological and marketing leaders of the computer world. By the end of the decade IBM began a long slide into what almost appeared to be technological irrelevance. During this same period the minis began their fade from the scene as the microprecessor became more and more powerful. I guess the point that I'm trying to make is that we are not simply talking about marketing and management expertise. We're talking about technological innovations, and these innovations could be very short lived. Right now, web-based selling is all the rage. Now these companies haven't earned any real money yet (I'm talking about companies like Yahoo and Amazon.com). They may. But even if they do, which will be the survivors and which will fall by the wayside? We won't know until market trends become apparent, and the management shows itself capable of handling the transition from early entrepreneurial demands to the day to day practicalities of running a large business. So, complacency is the kiss of death to a high-tech investor. But at the same time it is the greatest of blessings when looking at the more bread and butter businesses. In that case we would call it patience. What Buffet looks for is companies with great management where he doesn't need to worry about technology. That's why Buffet invests in companies like MacDonalds and Coca Cola and Gillette, and I invest in companies like Ascend and Dell and Peoplesoft. I hope this helps, Paul