To: davesd who wrote (26704 ) 3/15/1998 12:18:00 PM From: Knighty Tin Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 132070
Dave, The key is, there won't be all that 401K money as the folks who currently are putting money aside for retirement lose their jobs and even draw down 401ks, IRAS, Seps, etc. to pay the bills they have accumulated for crap they can't afford. The retirement money is a symptom of the financial bubble. Once the bubble pops, it disappears quickly. The Baby Boomers simply cannot have a comfortable retirement. There are too many of us. The enonomy cannot support that many unproductive folks who are living longer because they take Ginkoba. -g- The retirement money will either disappear from a huge increase in unemployment, an inflation that makes it woefully inadequate (least likely), or financial markets that make people think of 6 pct. govt. backed CDS as "the good old days." Or, most likely scenario, a little bit of all of the above and a whiff of deflation in the assets we hold. Since most of this buying is debt-enabled, a rise in rates would zap a lot of the retirement nesteggs on to the ground with the subsequent cracking of the shells. I know, that's a bad yolk. -g- Anyway, you have to love Gateway and Micron, especially with Mu about to bleed red tomorrow afternoon. They might even tell some of the truth about the DRAM market, though that has never been their style. The hotel businesses are factors of the financial inflation and they are way overbuilt for when the mania collapses. I pretty much hate all of them. Ditto for brokers. Banks require a bit more selectivity, as I prefer the ones with huge derivative exposure, ala Chaste Manhattan and Citicorp. However, Chaste recently hit the wall on eps and the market took little notice, so they may have a bit of teflon attached. The mutual fund companies are grotesquely overpriced and I would buy puts on all of them. The dopers are supposed to be defensive issues, but with their current nosebleed prices, I don't see much in the way of defense. Warner-Lambert is the most overloved, but just about any of them look like a good put buy here. All of these puts are strategic in nature. They may take months or even years to work out. But when it does, assuming a 90/10 approach that gives your bet some stamina, I think putters will own the world. MB