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Technology Stocks : Nam Tai Elec. (NTAI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe Dancy who wrote (1240)	3/15/1998 10:27:00 AM
From: John Gault	Respond to of 1696

Joe, I suggested you read the SEC filings to find out what the EPS is without one time gains and take into consideration the added dilution that will be coming in '98. David S., is the real guru here but listing a P/E of 6 is a touch misleading, IMHO. The company is trading close to "real" value but something needs to happen to boost earnings then investor relations. --But with ~100mill in the bank, a lot can happen. cheers

To: Joe Dancy who wrote (1240)	3/15/1998 11:42:00 AM
From: DanD	Respond to of 1696

Joe, I have loaded up on warrants based on the very same reasoning you have just made. This stock can show really good volatility and has run up in the past and probably will again. That is the key factor in considering the warrants since they are nothing more than options with a cap. The stock PE of six is not quite accurate due to the one time gains, but it has an 18-20% historical growth rate and even with the PE ratio being affected by one time gains the stock is being valued closer to a Value than a Growth valuation by the market. Of course this is the way it has been historically valued and will take some strong revenue and earnings growth to change. The warrants seen to me to have a much higher risk reward senario at the moment; since the stocks historical volatility is around 50 and the implied volatility of the warrants is in the 30 range. The company line on the "China Exposure" is that it is basically a wash to their business. Since they do most of their sales to US and Japan. The currency problem would seem to be a boon (sell goods in US dollars, buy materials and labor in local currency) , but since their competition has the same advantage it would lead to competitive pricing senario; therefor a wash in business effect. Still in my mind it is a lot like the oil companies that even with lots of competition (in a suposidly perfectly competitive market) they all seem to do better when the price of oil goes up (Go figure). Dan D

To: Joe Dancy who wrote (1240)	3/15/1998 5:35:00 PM
From: blankmind	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1696

- This is strictly my experience - and not scientific: 1. When warrants are out of the money & trade at a hefty premium - the stock soon follows. 2. Couple weeks ago, NTAIF was around $17; warrants about $3.50; and x/p $20.50. 3. Tells me the stock will move higher - eventually - & I bought some common shares. 4. So far, I've been wrong - as both the common & wts have moved down. But I'm in for the long haul. And over time, I predict both will rise substantially. Actually, in Nam Tai's case it's for 2 reasons - the hefty price of the warrnats & their ability to generate so much in cash & profits. Plus, the warrant holders would have to fork over $20.50 for each warrant they exercised. Not bad. Regards.