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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clarksterh who wrote (17727)	3/15/1998 12:12:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Clark, > I am not sure that I buy the logic that they had a crash because our market went up. Neither do I. It reminds me to pose a question to the thread: If the DOW crashes, will way undervalued stocks that are near their lows be spared? GM

To: Clarksterh who wrote (17727)	3/16/1998 10:05:00 PM
From: BigShoulders	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Clark Re:Potential for Japanese crash I don't pretend to know what the Japanese markets will do. The Japanese government's buying stocks to prop up prices and improve corporate balance sheets has been going on for years. Yeah, its screwed up. No, in of it self, it won't cause a crash. Yeah, there will probably be a correction back to the 17000 level in April. I think the issue of how Japanese markets have done relative to the other developed countries is very relevant. It is an indication of the over-all financial wealth and strength of the economy relative to their competitors. The point I wanted to make is the Japanese economy, and conditions for the people, have over 8 years detiorated far more - relative to the U.S. and Europe -- then the decline in the Nikkei indicates. While you are right that there hasn't been a crash in the Nikkei in some time, the erosion of their asset valuations means they may now be fairly valued or maybe even undervalued especially, relative to the U.S.. A downturn in stock prices could bring in buyers, keeping the downturn from being a crash. Also, because of the erosion of the Japanese economic position, there finally are some signs of needded changes. The so called "big bang" is coming soon where they are freeing government control of the financial system. This is a step in the right direction and is another reason I think a crash is not likely. The economic world seems to go in cycles. The current situation in some ways mirrors the 1970's, with the U.S. and Japanese positions reversed. What did Jimmy Carter call it, an economic malaise? At some point Japan 's economic situation will improve. What will happen to the U.S. economy and asset values? Something to think about. Remember, a pendulum swings both ways. BigShoulders