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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jach who wrote (39250)	3/15/1998 1:52:00 PM
From: pat mudge	Respond to of 61433

2. Large ATM switch mkt is very cyclical, One qtr can be great and the next really bad. So, the cscc side is pretty much hard to predict. I'd use "lumpy" versus "cyclical." In terms of cycles, ATM is in the early stages. Within the cycle companies experiences some quarters with far more revenues than others based on orders being moved up or back and on shipping schedules. In short, lumpy. Competition is always going to be very tough in ATM switch mkt, more so now as the telcom giants also want a piece of this pie that can get 30% margin While competition is tough the market is growing rapidly. JP Morgan Summary of Data Networking Market Projections: Carrier market Frame Relay -- backbone ---- 22.4% CAGR 3Q/97 market share ---- ASND 24%, CSCO 17%, NN 14%, ALA 11% Frame Relay -- Access 27.3% CAGR 3Q/97 market share ---- CSCO 16%, NT 15%, MOT 13%, NN 7% ATM -- backbone 56.5% CAGR 3Q/97 market share ---- NN 32%, CSCO 22%, NT 11%, ASND 8% ATM -- access 84.4% CAGR 3Q/97 market share ---- Yuri 28%, COMS 12%, NetEdge, 10%, ADC 10%. High-end routers ---- 28.1% CAGR 3Q/97 market share ---- CSCO 78%, BAY 15%, ASND 3% New Internet backbone layer -3 switching/ terabit routers ---- 123.0% CAGR (Mkt share N/A) Remote Access concentrators and servers ---- 31.6% CAGR 3Q/97 market share ---- COMS 39%, ASND 26%, CSCO, 18%, SHVA 4% Total WAN mkt 37.8% CAGR