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Technology Stocks : Equinox Systems (EQNX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HeyRainier who wrote (320)	3/15/1998 9:38:00 PM
From: Scott H. Davis	Respond to of 765

Rainier, I was not aware of IBD implications before, just knew it was a publication that folks quoted from occasionally. One thing that works well in EQNX's favor for the next two qtrs is that the year ago EPS was good but not that great (.19 & .23) It's after the next two qtrs that EQNX may have a much harder time of meeting high expectations. Hopefully by then the effects of the PO contract and hopefully others associated with the IMB partnering will come thru. How far out does your valuation project/does it place a lot of weight on the trailing 12 months. Reason is - my gut level is that, assuming the market does not crash and EQNX releases no bad news, that the effect of EPS growth associated with the next two earnings reports should carry EQNX to the $24 level. If you're valuation is historically orriented, that should allow some growth ceiling with the newer #s. But if your model is future oriented, EQNX will hit a valuation ceiling sooner. Curious, Scott

To: HeyRainier who wrote (320)	3/15/1998 10:01:00 PM
From: Quad Sevens	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 765

Rainier, it seems to me the central question is if EQNX is entering a new and unprecedented phase of growth. The IBM contract looks exceptional, yet I do not know how to quantify it. The earnings estimates are old. Did the analysts know about the Postal contract? Will the earnings estimates be changed? Rob S. reported that the CFO said the IBM contract is just the "tip of the iceberg". I don't think he's referring to the Titanic. If that comment was accurate, some new thinking might be in order for this stock. Wade

To: HeyRainier who wrote (320)	3/15/1998 10:27:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 765

I think you misread the fair value targets for EQNX. I know that mine were stated as 12 month targets, which I think are entirely reasonable given what is currently forecast for earnings. The IBM and another large OEM contract that is still in the works may well impact the earnings further to the upside, making the 39 dollar figure appear even more doable. I wouldn't invest in the stock if it were anywhere near that 12 month target, but it is where I think the stock could go without any wild speculation.