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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ToySoldier who wrote (21135)	3/16/1998 2:46:00 AM
From: Don Earl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

Hi ToySoldier, This Aberdeen Group review of the OS2 Warp 4 beta from Feb 1996 sure sounds like it has everything NetWare 5 hopes to have later this year. software.ibm.com Software sales from IBM FY97Q4: <Overall software revenues were $3.8 billion, an increase of 1 percent (up 7 percent in constant currency) compared with the fourth quarter of 1996. Approximately 4 million Lotus Notes seats were shipped in the quarter, more than double that of the fourth quarter of 1996. Tivoli distributed software revenues also doubled year over year. During the fourth quarter, IBM completed its acquisition of Unison Software, Inc., and announced plans to acquire Software Artistry, Inc., both of which will complement Tivoli's network computing offerings.> ibm.com Some interesting stuff on Tivoli. Sounds like serious competition for some of Novells administration and management tools. tivoli.com Without a technical background I'm never quite sure if I'm interpreting information correctly when I go off on one of my research binges. I don't seem to be getting the impression that IBM needs to buy Novell to shore up their product lines. I'd like to run across some sales figures for OS2 but I haven't found anything so far. Last I saw NT sales were running around $4 billion per year, which would make a pretty convincing argument for developing applications for that platform first. Novell has some very major hurdles to jump in the coming 6 months. They have to get the bugs out of NetWare 5 and they have to do it on time. They have to get their act together in the marketing department and let someone besides shareholders know they have a new product. They have a law suit to deal with. They haven't had a COO for almost a year and now they need a CFO. And, they have to do all this in a highly competitive market where the big guys are trying to stomp them flat. Gloom and doom doesn't have anything to do with it. That's reality. Whether or not they can pull it off is the question. My opinion is that it's still a bit of a long shot this far out, and that there will be much better entry points between now and then. Regards, Don

To: ToySoldier who wrote (21135)	3/16/1998 8:46:00 AM
From: Spartex	Respond to of 42771

ToySoldier: No problem pushing ahead with your responses. Your hands are on the wheel and you've got the technology experience to address these IBM, NOVL and MSFT questions with a fair and unbiased account. Thanks for tooting the horn, keep that 18-wheeler moving down the highway my friend, you're doing great <s>. And Don/Paul and others, yep, as ToySoldiers says, he knows this stuff inside and out. I vouch for him, although by his words you'd already know that. Regards, Quad-K