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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (26719)	3/16/1998 12:00:00 PM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Nadine, while your criticisms of the bears for being early may seem to be quite valid at the moment it is predicated on the assumption that the market will accommodate those who wish to leave the bubble with their profits intact. Markets are asymmetrical, this "liquidity driven" market is fueled by a decline in liquidity preference. Look back to Oct 97 any attempt to remove significant( I am unable to quantify) amounts of money out of the bubble will hammer valuations. I see this market as a confidence game, a ponzi scheme, musical chairs. Look at a chart of any previous boom and you will see the market takes no prisoners once the downside begins in earnest. I say sell now. I will say the same at Dow 10000 by mid year. As Joe Kennedy said " only a fool holds out for top dollar" J Paul Getty said "sell what others are buying and buy what others are selling- this is not some catching cliche it is the very essence of successful investing" his son Gordon learned that lesson well. In case you have any doubts I am a bear and quite happy about it. I don't need a crystal ball to predict the future I have history as my guide.Pete I hope you enjoy this note-g- Mike

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (26719)	3/16/1998 1:05:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Nadine, I stick with the Contrarian name, as I am long many, many issues. Some even techs. And, of course, I was long techs big time when they were cheap, though I have never liked commodity techs. IDC is off by about 20-30 pct. every year, about the same as DQ. They consider that good. I consider it useless for my purposes. Especially since they use unit and not dollar sales. That is just a waste of an investors time. The sad fact is, there are no definitive studies on Y2k problems and opportunities as nobody was a around in 1000. -g- The only input I have is bits like cos. and the govt. cutting or eliminating new spending until it is fixed, and that process will pick up steam as the date approaches and the economy rolls over, IMHO. BTW, though I like contrarian better than bear, I love tulips. -g- MB