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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (21145)	3/16/1998 12:55:00 PM
From: Spartex	Respond to of 42771

Eric: I feel that the stock could get hit 1-2 points, but by that time I believe NOVL will already be trading in the 14-16 dollar range, so that kind of hit is very tolerable to most early longs. Its just my best guess, but I really think its going to be a non-issue for the most part. Regards, Quad-K

To: E_K_S who wrote (21145)	3/16/1998 3:22:00 PM
From: Don Earl	Respond to of 42771

Hi Eric, Hard saying what the numbers might look like if they have to restate. They have taken massive corrections twice that might off set what they did in the preceding quarters. I have an idea that the yearly figures might remain about the same but quarter to quarter numbers would show a more accurate picture of declining revenue. Then again book value has dropped .79 since 1995 while showing a profit for the same period. I'm more than a little curious about how they account for assets and depreciation. I haven't put much faith in reported earnings and revenue for the last two quarters. Those numbers still don't look right to me. -.11 and -.08 is a lot closer to what I think should have happened. I also suspect that actual sell through for this quarter will be below $200 million for a minimum loss of .15. If more recent numbers are affected I think it will have more impact on the stock price than pre Schmidt figures. The sudden "resignation" of the CFO and his replacement with an "interum" CFO that has been out of work for 3 months looks like a panic move to me. I don't know how shareholder suits are normally handled but these guys look to be making a sizable investment on the belief that they can win. I'm not trading NOVL today. The MMs look like they are having some fun with the short players and I don't like it long at these prices.There are so many things pending both pro and con that guessing price movement is next to impossible. Buying or shorting NOVL at this point in time is at about the same level of gambling as tossing coins. I'm mostly on hold right now until it starts looking a little less like a sucker play. Regards, Don PS All IMO. The usual disclaimers apply.