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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: China Trader who wrote (34587)	3/16/1998 7:31:00 PM
From: David E. Taylor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

You have to look back at DELL's behavior around the time of previous earnings reports and stock splits. The stock always gets up a head of steam before these events, becomes a pure momentum play, and gets blown about 10-15% ahead of what can be justified based on trailing earnings and projected earnings growth rates. It invariably corrects back to a more "reasonable" level after the event(s). Take a look at the stock price vs a 10 or 20 MA and you'll see it's settled back to a more reasonable "uptrend" level. So the fact that the stock is moving sideways this week is no indication of where it will be a month from now. As you point out, a second factor that will probably keep DELL in the 60-70 range for the next month (absent some good/bad news for DELL or the market generally) is that the analyst community's published forward estimates are always on the low side, because they use a conservative growth estimate that DELL consistently exceeds. I still believe that the current CPQ inventory problem will leave DELL relatively unaffected, but Q1 results in May will be the proof - and I guess that's what the market will also wait for, unless CPQ comes in better than expected in April. David T.