EMERYVILLE, Calif.--(BW HealthWire)--March 16, 1998--An explosion
of productivity in biotechnology research and development will have a
major impact on biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies as the next
century approaches, a noted industry analyst predicted Sunday.
ÿÿÿÿ Dr. David Crossen, Managing Director/Senior Health Care Analyst
at NationsBanc Montgomery Securities, told the Fourth Informed
Investors Bay Area Biotech Forum that dramatic increases in
productivity will give "big pharma" (pharmaceutical companies) a
"compelling story in terms of raising its internal productivity, which
has been flat for a long period of time.
ÿÿÿÿ "As R&D spending climbs, the new drug approval trend will go up,
spending will go up and productivity of that spending will go through
the roof.
ÿÿÿÿ "Combinatorial chemistry is giving the (drug) industry a gigantic
library of compounds ... millions of compounds as opposed to hundreds
of thousands," Crossen said, "and genomics is giving the industry
many, many more targets to focus on.
ÿÿÿÿ "Also, high throughput screening is being developed very rapidly
allowing companies to screen at a much higher rate using much lower
quantities of re-agents at a much, much lower cost. As a result, this
is going to be a high-powered engine allowing companies to churn out
compounds at a steady rate."
ÿÿÿÿ Rapid advances in biotech R&D will also spur more competition
among biotech and big pharma companies, increase the likelihood of
mergers in biopharma, and shorten lifespans for drugs as newer
products replace existing ones. "This is inevitable and the trend is
dramatic, particularly the way it has evolved in the last two years,"
he said.
ÿÿÿÿ Crossen's address climaxed the morning-long Forum that also
included full analyst-style presentations, including Q&A, from top
executives, three CEOS and two CFOs, of five leading biotechs -- Geron
Corp. (NASDAQ:GERN), Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD), Xoma Corp.
(NASDAQ:XOMA), Myriad Genetics (NASDAQ:MYGN) and Shaman
Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:SHMN).
ÿÿÿÿ Audio cassettes of the Forum, which includes Crossen's slide
presentation, are available for $25 plus $3.95 shipping/handling or
$18 for a single presentation. To order tapes, call 800/992-4683.
Check out www.informedinvestors.com for more information.
ÿÿÿÿ Crossen's wide-ranging talk hit on several aspects of biotech
investing, including importance of timing, trial results for potential
new drugs, risks imposed by short sellers and the importance of
analysts' expectations. Interestingly, Crossen said, the way biotechs
present their stories -- both the presentation and the presenters
themselves -- are key elements in how analysts and investors perceive
the likelihood of those companies to succeed.
ÿÿÿÿ Crossen also profiled a portfolio of biotech companies he
believes have potential upside later in 1998 and 1999. In most cases,
he emphasized, investors are wise to wait for announcements that major
milestones or test results have been achieved rather than invest prior
to such announcements. "You can buy a stock now and take the chances,
or buy it 10 points higher when the data is out and still make a lot
of money ... there are ways to make money and balance your overall
risk."
ÿÿÿÿ For instance, Crossen told attendees Centocor (NASDAQ:CNTO) could
benefit from its drug Avakine being launched later this year. Also,
BioChem Pharma (NASDAQ:BCHE) would benefit if, as expected, its drug
Lamivudine receives approval in China and Latin America. Favorable
test results could help Cell Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CTIC) and strong
product sales may drive PathoGenesis (NASDAQ:PGNS) stock higher,
Crossen said.
ÿÿÿÿ Other stocks that carry good upside, depending on successful
trials, product launches or partnerships, include Biotime
(NASDAQ:BTIM), Liposome (NASDAQ:LIPO), Sonus (NASDAQ:SNUS),
Intercardia (NASDAQ:ITRC), Myriad Genetics, Transkaryotic Therapies
(NASDAQ:TKTX), Dura Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:DURA) and Alteon
(NASDAQ:ALTN). He discussed why he believes they have potential
upside.
ÿÿÿÿ Finally, don't be surprised, Crossen added, if biotech giant
Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) makes an acquisition in 1998, potentially
involving one of the companies listed above. "They've hired a big M
and A (mergers and acquisitions) team and are very proactively looking
at ideas," Crossen said. "Amgen's Neupogen could be helped a lot by
having a broader cancer franchise ... "
ÿÿÿÿ Since 1993, Sacramento-based Informed Investors has been linking
investors with management of public companies. Informed Investors
represents individual investors who collectively hold an estimated
$1.5 billion in investable assets.
ÿÿÿÿ CONTACT: Informed Investors
ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Bob Taylor/Steve Chanecka/Tim Quast, 916/448-8222 or
ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ 800/992-4683
ÿÿÿÿ KEYWORD: CALIFORNIA
ÿÿÿÿ INDUSTRY KEYWORD: BANKING MEDICINE PHARMACEUTICAL BIOTECHNOLOGY
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