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To: ratan lal who wrote (30386)	3/16/1998 9:45:00 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 53903

Skeeter Bug: Like you, I've been a bear on MU for a fairly lengthy period of time. Also as have you, I've been the recipient of a few comments that suggested that neither of us knew what we were talking about when we suggested that MU's selling price was well below its cost of production. If I recall, we both estimated slightly above $3.00 as an ASP, and something above $4.00 as an all-up cost of production. Simple math suggested then that there would be a $1.00 deficit per chip. Of course we were both wrong....heh, heh, heh. On another front, we have those who have been counting on a squeezing of the 40.0 million short position to drive the stock. As I noted a while back, big stubborn short positions that won't go away, are indicative of the fact that the pros expect it to sink sooner or later. While it will take a bit of time to work off that short position, these results are truly a disaster, and the stock will now commence a lengthy grinding fall. It is a better short now (in that what was obvious only to those doing a bit of homework before this afternoon, is now obvious to all), and will respond as such. The stock will take an early smack, many shorts will slow the descent for a week or two, and then the more patient shorts will derive the really substantial gains that are their due. As I said a week ago, MU is dead meat. One last thought: This tulip bulb market is deriving its manic strength from three unusual sources of liquidity.....Japanese savings that are currently being stripped from Japanese banks by frightened Japanese savers (and that money is free to roam the world as of April 1), Greenspan's stunning crank-up of the government's printing presses (presumably to help soak up the flood of treasuries being sold by Asia, but a portion of which is being diverted to the markets), and the tail end of a staggering rise in "refinancings", in which an inordinate number of N. Americans have lifted their debts to even higher historical levels on the backs of insane 125% mortgages. The balloon will survive for a bit yet. A complete trashing of the high tech sector's earnings has until now been totally ignored. Stocks have been driven to ever higher levels even as virtually every tech company warns or reports miserable results. The bears will not have long to wait now. Once the markets vacuum up these last few remaining pockets of cash, it will be all over. Best, Earlie

To: ratan lal who wrote (30386)	3/16/1998 10:25:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 53903

>>Skeets - Prediction for tomorrow??<< reality based is mu at $10. since we've had a disconnect for quite sometime, i suspect it will continue. mu's bogus pe is now 40. their ops pe is infinity b/c they have negative earnings over the last 12 months, but i have no faith in anyone figuring that out. they can't even get gross and net cost straight ;-) anyway, my guss would be a dip into the $31s and a bounce back to the low to mid $32s by the close. but, we'll see. i hope to be surprised. i'd love to see us touch the $20s :-)