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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (30400)	3/16/1998 10:42:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

zeev, we are on the same wavelength. however, the single best way to redue cost is to drastically increase output. everyone knows this. and that is exactly their mo. everybody's mo. if mu lasts, they'll be well positioned to invest billions and make a measely return like they did on 16 mb technology. true. however, with all this euphoria it is unlikely that anybody will quite and be embarrassed when the demand gold mine hits in 3 months or so. it is a joke, but most believe it. demand doesn't have to grow. it must grow an awful lot. any slowing in pc demand will, imho, have a material impact on dram producers primarily b/c they can't reduce costs w/o drastically increasing output and, therefore, supply.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (30400)	3/17/1998 7:40:00 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

Zeev: As I know you know, 65% plus of all memory chips end up in or attached to a PC. That "other" category is both fragmented and not growing substantially. Of greater concern is the fact that more memory is available per chip (16 to 64 etc) and at a substantially lower cost per Mbit with each passing month, even as the former burgeoning need for additional memory has become relatively static. PC demand, or lack thereof, will continue to drive semi demand, and it is a saturated market. Asia, which was to have been this year's growth situation for all PC producers is in survival mode and will be purchasing few PCs for the foreseeable future. The actual dollars earned by a memory producer per PC sold is a tiny fraction of what it was, and I can't see this changing unless actual memory per PC rises by orders of magnitude. It looks ugly until a new "killer application" arrives for the memory producers, especially for a company with no consequential diversification. Another problem is that Asia MUST ship chips to survive, as this is an important foreign currency source for several. Best, Earlie