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Strategies & Market Trends : HONG KONG -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ---------- who wrote (1427)	3/17/1998 2:02:00 AM
From: allen menglin chen	Respond to of 2951

Doug, here is the "inside info" on the Yahoo BYH msg board #365 by author "whoami111". Hi, folks: I used another name to post this message since I do not want to create too much trouble for myself. Some of you guys know who I am. I am very upset and angry with the lazy of chinese ADR's activity in post their annual report, what are they fucking waiting!! I want to post the information I have, but I first I should make it clear that I did not have any positions in either BYH or SHI, to make money with informtion you got from top management team of the company is illegal, but it is not illegal if you did not use it to make money. The net earnings of BYH of the year is RMB.44 billion, which is a great decrease from last year. Its target of the year is RMB.684. This is the true value that it reports to the goverment, even there is an accounting method difference between china and Hongkong, but it can never achieve that goal whithout cooking the report. The SHI's net earnings is only 1/3 of the last year. The first half of the year they reported to the goverment is exactly the same as they declare in the market. The second half of the year, situation drastically changed. It is right that BYH does not export a lot, but the cheaper chemical product from Korea drives down the price and made its profit margin almost zero.(I am not kidding and have very accurate statistics with me) One factor some people may not need to worry that much is the officer at BYH also told me (do not ask how can I get that) the report would (NOT, author later corrected) be far below the goal since the central goverment would not let them do that, china needs Hongkong to raise money especially for this year. They can not let them down too much. The forecast in top goverment level for these company SHI and BYH, JCC is that they can not make profit (seriously) before year of 2003, I do not know how they made this conclusion. Another thing I want to address is that the earnings declared in chinese newspaper,see our post of 232, the net earnings is RMB. 66 billion, some people treat it as BYH, if you pay attention, that is "yan shan group company", BYH is "yan shan LLC" which is only part of its main body which has .66 billion. One good aspect is that once the earnings come out, we do not worry anymore, since they only declare twice a year, some people wants to buy can just buy (may include me) and wait to sell when its price is high, but definitely not wait until its earnings come out. I agree the earnings may not affect a lot, but why not buy CEA, which with high possibility will give a good annual report. I could not believe if BYH declare 5 cents below estimate and CEA report 2 cents above, then the price still move together! This post just post some inside information, and I do not argue its long run upside. --------------------------- Here is another msg by the same author: The Japanese goverment has decided to make the biggest stimulating package the second week of April. It includes big tax rate decrease, goverment spending increase and some other package. This is their biggest reaction in leading SEA countries out of crisis. This definitely will bring hope to Asian market, but Japan market will be benefited the most, and I suggest we can look some stock such as Japan investment fund, (do not look a specific stock, it would be better to invest in those "investment fund", not mutual fund either). At least, you will not lose much in investing these. The amount of package will be worth of 10 trillion Japanese yuen. Folks, do not force me by asking where this news from, Japanese former premier minister is in New York yesteray and met with RUbin discussing this, US and other international society blamed them hard in their sluggish reaction to SEA crisis. I guess those investment banks will know this soon, since Goldman Sachs knew this at the same time I knew.