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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (17439)	3/17/1998 11:22:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Watch out for seasonal and pattern trading- Markets tend to behave on these high levels with kind of movements which follow old foot prints-- like I wrote about market breaking new highs does have a similarity with CAC and FTSE breaks- it was this very same reason I always highlighted the fact that once 992 is taken out we will sky rocket-- if this has been right so far I would assume patterns to follow should be 770-900 move of 97. I call this as a 'seasonal' impact on market making new highs of-course one needs to interject new factors like lower bond yields and oil prices but the pattern shall in most likely hood should hold although undoubtedly the calendar period shall be different we will not mimic June and Oct corrections we may have these patterns in different months. I think we will be looking at CPI number for future market trend--- the markets all over in ASEA and Europe are acting in line with global equity index I expect 1100 on SPM to offer some resistance rather even 1194-98 area looks to me area of strong resistance-- Abby has just moved her target to 9300 for 98 if conditions like this persist and we may see some improvement in Tech sector we may surpass this target I think she knows it well that if under-performers get going SPX will benefit a lot so far TXN INTC and tech sector has under performed if one compares euphoric heights achieved last year we are still 25% lower some of these DDX's or SOX's will find base within 10% of their present levels and probably the only way would be the way up- if her target is conservative and deliberately set lower it is OK however I think year end target 9300 means that we are in for a sizeable retracement soon without such a correction a summer rally would take DOW much higher-- the chances of this correction are around 1138 area on SPM give and take 10 points I think we will see DOW above 9300 by July between now and July I would assume a corrective phase and a possible entry point-- by June and July we may hit 9300 or even higher however towards end of the year DOW may go back down but last year pattern of movement shall hold I know we will see 992 many a times between now and 9300 like we saw that famous consolidation at 900 area between move from 770 to 992 so this particular leg will have similarities with last year pattern and it will external factors more than corporate earnings that will dictate the ranges of market movements.