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To: Robert K. Sims who wrote (4948)	3/17/1998 1:22:00 AM
From: Jeffrey S. Mitchell	Respond to of 10786

Robert, about all I know about accounting is revenues - expenses = profit, but I don't see what all the fuss is about regarding financials. Since we know Q4 could go one way or the other, for simplicity, let's just say it's break-even at $6.5M. So, adding that number to the first three quarters of revenue means $4.6+$6.5=$11.1, and adding that number to expenses would be $12.2+$6.5=$18.7. Thus, $18.7-$11.1= a net loss of $7.6M. However, keep in mind that there are obviously some one-time charges in 4Q, like the buyout of ALYD International, their NASCAR sponsorship, etc., so the numbers are somewhat misleading for using to extrapolate for next year. Nevertheless, my point is I really don't see anything that has the potential to shock anyone. People who don't like those numbers have probably long since sold, and vice versa, so any talk of massive sell-off (or buyin for that matter) seems kind of pointless. What people want now is a good sense of Q1. ALYD is finally close to making a quarterly profit and another 50% jump in revenues could really jumpstart the stock price. That's what has my attention-- including any new contract announcements that might help the cause. - Jeff

To: Robert K. Sims who wrote (4948)	3/17/1998 2:27:00 AM
From: tech	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10786

>> Anyone else care to comment on the Q4 numbers? << - I think you mean to say FYE 1997 numbers. We are waiting for ALYD to report their year end results. We have already seen the preliminary Q4 numbers. It is pretty simple to estimate what range the numbers will come in. 1. If you remember from our favorite news paper, the Charlotte Business Journal, ALYD's 1997 sales were said to come in at approx. $11 million exchange2000.com 2. Next we will take a look at the last 10Q that ALYD filed. sec.gov In this filing you will find the following: Nine Months Ended 9/30/97 ============================== Revenues $ 4,566,839 Operating Expenses Payroll and related costs .... $9,369,319 Depreciation & amortization ... 455,329 Other operating expenses ... 2,403,611 Total Operating Expenses $ 12,228,269 Operating Loss $ (7,661,420) Other Income $27,386 Net Loss $(7,634,034) ================================ These number show us that ALYD burns approx. $4.1 million per Q. Since ALYD is constantly adding more people, we should expect to see the burn rate increase in Q4. We also see that for the nine months ended 9/30/97.... ALYD had already lost in excess of $7.6 million. 4. Now we will look at the preliminary Q4 numbers ALYD released on Feb. 6 th. biz.yahoo.com If you remember they had approx. $6.5 million in revenues and the release said the company earned a small profit What does this tell us ? ========================== Well, if we add the Q4 revenues of $6.5 million to the 9 month ended 9/30/97 revenues of $4.5 million, that will tell us the FYE revenues should be around $11 million. (as was reported in the Business Journal) We also see in the Feb. 6th Q4 news release, ALYD said they only showed a small profit in Q4 on the $6.5 million in revenues brought in. Now If we go back and look at the 9 months ended 9/30/97 data, we will remember that ALYD's avg. expenses ran about $4.1 million per Q. So if they only made a "small" profit on $6.5 million in revenues in Q4, then their expenses must have gone up significantly. We should also note that ALYD listed their international and domestic figures separately. The Company expects that final audited operating results for the fourth quarter will reflect an operating profit for its domestic operations while Alydaar's European subsidiary, Alydaar International, PLC, will experience a small loss. These results are in line with management's expectations. Management anticipates both operations will realize considerable sales increases and operating profits for 1998. Final audited numbers will be released by March 15, 1998. Chances are that once you combine the two there wouldn't be a profit to speak of. why do you think ALYD listed them separately. I would guarantee you that if the international subsidiary had shown a profit they would of combined the two. Anyway, for the sake of argument, let us say that ALYD made a $1.5 million profit in Q4 on the $6.5 million in revenues they brought in and that the international subsidiary broke even. Well, if you go back and look at the 9 months ended 9/30/97 data, you will see that as of Q3 the company had accumulated a Net Loss $(7,634,034). Even if we add in the $1.5 million figure we would see that the company would still show a Net Loss in excess of $(6,000,000) FYE 1997. It is easy to see that ALYD will show a significant loss FYE 1997. I personally think the loss could be in the $7.5 to $8 million range. I know that certain individuals on this thread will try to draw attention away from these numbers by throwing out all kinds of estimated projections for Q1 1998 and FYE 1998. Before you or anyone else starts to fall for the hype, you should ask yourself if ALYD has even been able to meet any of these wild revenue projections ? Ask yourself if Bob "slick" Gruder has mislead the shareholders and put out all kinds of expectations that have always been grandiose in nature. ALYD's stock price will drop once these numbers come out. In an attempt to stop the bleeding, I can assure you that Gruder will put out another BIG name little disclosure press release. We are also sure to hear some more wild estimates for Q1. This should be interesting. btw- as you can see this post is filled full of FACTUAL information that has been "linked". The numbers and data can NOT be disputed. I am sure, to change the subject, certain posters will turn to the personal attacks. They can't fight the data, so they try to draw attention away from it.