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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Worswick who wrote (2682)	3/17/1998 5:10:00 PM
From: Worswick	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

From Barton.... technical analysis of the Asia markets: For private use only (C) Barton DANGER BELOW: FLYING BROKERS AND BANKERS AND BUREACRATS 16th March: So the government is giving money away? According to news reports, the Japanese government is determined to push the index up to the window dressing level of 18,000 by the end of this month. It looks cunning in a way. 18,000 would break through the neckline of our patterns pointing to 20,000. But one must be very suspicious of such follies. Governments can't support markets for long. The whole thing could about face and collapse. It could be a good time to offload stock. Check out the long term picture of the fund chart, which last week gave the first confirmation of the long term gloom scenario. It shows an impending fifty percent fall. ...The bad news is that the Japan fund indicates a series of falls amounting to a loss of 50% of the value of the fund. Unless this breakout fails, it can be taken as confirmation of the gloom target of 8,000. There is still uncertainty in that regard. The Japanese government's decision to inject money into the stock market will do no more than distort the picture for a while.

To: Worswick who wrote (2682)	3/18/1998 1:22:00 AM
From: B Tate	Respond to of 9980

Worswick I agree that Jess is correct. The problem is IF we have a choice, would we choose the short term benefits of regional currency stabilization or the longer term free market reforms. Compelling arguments can and are being heard from all sides. For my two cents worth I believe in the long term solution of freeing up the economic situation with substantial reforms. I believe this will help in rebuilding AFTER the inevitable crash of regional currencies. Debate of the theoretical financial issues and rhetoric aside, these currencies are going to fall no matter what China does. Might as well get it over with. Reality is still only a fleeting thought in the region, with the possible exception of Thailand. Just another opinion FWIW. bt