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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (15091)	3/17/1998 2:59:00 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Baird, Then there's the PEngr scenario....bear market, falling prices across the board worldwide, layoffs leading to lower wages rather than higher. It can happen. In the early 70s in California I experienced something like that. I was too young to know what was going on but my pocketbook knew. I can tell you that IF cheap oil doesn't spur the world economy then we are in a world of hurt. In Hawaii we have seen declining real property prices for 8 years now. You know what we kept saying as we took out lower and lower support prices? "Can't go lower than this!" It's still dropping and NOW the State is saying. "Hey. we're in a recession..." Duh! This April, Japan faces the future of their economy square in the face. If they don't pull off a miracle there is a very real possibility that the worlds' 2nd largest economy could enter a full blown depression. This would send the world into economic shock and melt down. Lower oil may be exactly what the really big boys are hoping will pull Asia out of its nose diving free fall. Maybe that's why the international community was so quick to let Iraq increase it's oil for food quota. Europe has heavy Asian exposure. Better to sacrifice the economies of a few oil producing countries than see Asia implode and suck the rest of us down with 'em. It's a fool's game in any case. The risk is turmoil in the M. E. as their economies feel the pinch and begin to do their own little implosion. Low oil, in the long run, is not healthy for the world economic system. Ain't good for my meager portfolio either>g< PK

To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (15091)	3/17/1998 3:35:00 PM
From: Tulvio Durand	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

The "surprise" out of this wailing and gnashing of teeth period, is that the offshore drilling companies will continue to turn in extremely strong earnings. What we are seeing more than anything else is a projection of fear into the future. I could not agree more with what you say. The 'earnings' is the reason for being in these stocks, and if we do look at ourselves as owners of these great money making machines then the presently aberrant market behavior should not diminish our enthusiasm. Tulvio