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Technology Stocks : Osicom(FIBR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mama Bear who wrote (5966)	3/17/1998 5:07:00 PM
From: Scott Ozer	Respond to of 10479

Barb, since when is a day trader interested in the fundamentals? David went on record with the facts he had and knew them to be. The situation changed and he did not update his "official" report like analysts do all the time at brokerages. Didn't you once bolster the bull case for this company?

To: Mama Bear who wrote (5966)	3/17/1998 5:46:00 PM
From: CMS27	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10479

>>Um, so why should we believe that it will be correct this time around?<< I'm not saying it will be, in fact I didn't know he was doing another report. His numbers didn't influence me before and I wouldn't put much wieght on them now. Nothing against him, his effort wasn't all that far off really, considering that it's very difficult to make clear financial estimations of a company with very little post merger history and going through so much change, this isn't KO afterall. >>Why do you suppose that FIBR won't use the same financing scheme to ramp up the new products?<< Given an appropriate circumstance more shares would be fine. A ramp up is appropriate. SUN Micro approved an astronomical amount for a similar purpose. It's hardly a scheme to raise capital for the building of factories or tooling up, that is in fact why companies go public. >>Do you really think a secondary is a possibility? Par said in the 12/97 conference call that (at least some of) the extra 30 million shares would be set aside to finance the ramp up.<< Sounds plausible to me. If the company financed growth through cash I think it would be quite slow growth. If Osicom's products turn out to be very succesful then a secondary will likely be needed. I'm not in this for slow growth so if they do a secondary to meet market demand for products then it would have to be viewed as a sign of success. In fact if they are able to build all the Net+Arms and Gigamuxes the world can eat with current capacity it would be more negative than a secondary. >>Frankly, I'll believe they are delivering shareholder value when I see it.<< Fair enough. But I think it's too early to throw in the towel. The share count that had me worried was the full disclosure, made necessary by the new accounting rules, resulting from the aquisitions. That number, 21 mil., did not seem unreasonable to me. If we continue to get new shares without a well defined purpose, or if they fail to generate any sort of market for their new products then the sun will have set in my eyes as well. Part 1 aquisitons completed. Part 2 new products developed. Part 3 sales of new products. As you can see we are at part 3. So far Osicom hasn't let me down as these goals have existed since I first purchased the stock. Yes this phase is very pivotal and probably will offer Osicom the biggest challenge. IMHO It's just a bit too soon to give up. Not to wave the "just one more quarter flag" But definately within the next 6 months we will have a very clear picture of Osicoms future by virtue of market acceptance of the new products. Scott

To: Mama Bear who wrote (5966)	3/18/1998 8:59:00 AM
From: David Pawlak	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 10479

Barb- my estimates and projections were revised down the second time around, not up. Yes, my projected revenue target was missed last year because of several factors: 1)My assumption in my target revenue stated that the Networking industry would grow by approximately 30%, which is what the research groups were predicting. According to InStat, they only grew 16% last year, making last year the slowest growth in history for the networking industry. 2)The company divested a subsidiary that contributed approximately $8 million. I had no idea they would do that or even had thoughts about doing that. 3)You seem to be singling me out as the only one who's estimates were off. Have you looked at where Chapman, Crowell Weedon, Oberweiss and BI Research's numbers were at? They were off as well. 4)Key product introductions did not roll out on time as expected, causing a significant delay in predicted revenues and earnings. 5)Missing the estimates during this time frame isn't specific only to Osicom. Check out leaders and competitors COMS, ASND, XION, CS, NN, BAY during this same time period. 6)In addition, it is extremely difficult to forecast revenues after a merger. When you consider the number of mergers they did in 1997 for a tiny company like Osicom, it is virtually impossible. Barb- I have specifically waited this long to publish another research piece for the sole reason that I wanted to make sure that their was good reason to expect the revenues and earnings to climb. Now that the 3 key products are finally shipping and being accepted very well in the market, I felt now was the best time to do it. The numbers I have projected fall under the phrase "Once bitten, Twice Shy." I have predicted very little growth for the old product line, which is consistent with history and guided the increase in revenues mainly from the new products that are really beginning to pick up momentum. Put it this way, if they can't meet the estimates that I have put forth, then even I will consider selling. But based on my research of the initial responses from the market, I don't believe that will be the case.