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Technology Stocks : Jabil Circuit (JBL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rosemary who wrote (3190)	3/17/1998 5:24:00 PM
From: Michael Ohlendorf	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6317

I have to agree with you Rosemary. If they manage to earn .49 for the rest of the year they will be fine. The only thing that disappoints me are Mr. Sansone's misleading outlook comments of last quarter.

To: Rosemary who wrote (3190)	3/17/1998 5:41:00 PM
From: WTMHouston	Respond to of 6317

Rosemary: I don't read their statement as positively (or less negatively) as you do....my take.....revenues (not earnings) will be down to last Q levels, which will be a drop of 3% from the current Q...earnings will be down, but to an unquantified level....given that operating expenses have gone up since last Q, I would be surprised if they can maintain the .49 from last Q.....my guess is we will see earnings revisions down to the .45 level (or lower) for the next 2 Q's....that will still give them 1.91 for the year, which at a 20 multiple is around $38....given that growth has come to a screeching halt for now and is actually going in reverse, it may even be hard to justify a 20 multiple, much less 25-30... With this warning following so closely on the heels of the glowing forecasts and the ADAMENT cries that JBIL would not be significantly affected by Asia, their predictions about future growth going forward don't have much credibility...IMO. Troy

To: Rosemary who wrote (3190)	3/18/1998 7:50:00 AM
From: Rob L.	Respond to of 6317

Rosemary, your first sentence says it all "..the company anticipates that revenue will slow..." This is exactly the type of statement that will scare away any and all remaining momentum investors. It's the second time in the last six months that he has mentioned a slowing gorwth rate. The momentum is gone and upside potential on this stock is gone with it. You will be extremely extremely luck if you see 45-50 by the next two earnings report. I would bet that you will see 25 before you see 50 IMO. I'm glad I departed at 44 1/4 a month ago. Good Luck to all and don't get emotionally attached to this or any other stock. The fundamentals have changed here folks. Who knows how long the Asia crisis will last. There are many that say the worst in Asia is yet to come. Is Sansone an economist or an expert on Asian economies? No! So how does he know when the turnaround will occur? He doesn't and he has already guessed it wrong once. Rob