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To: RGinPG who wrote (15190)	3/17/1998 7:52:00 PM
From: Thean	Respond to of 95453

Ron, you may have made your confession a day too soon. Actually your system is still valid and a 3% drop today is really nothing when you show you actually called the bottom 15% lower ago. I'm in your camp and don't get too excited over this panic selling. If your hands can be as steady as during a surgery, you should be able to make good return in your investment during this messy day. Remember discipline like they teach in the medical school. Btw, my kids are still very young - so I'm talking about oil money paying their future school fees.

To: RGinPG who wrote (15190)	3/17/1998 8:02:00 PM
From: Thean	Respond to of 95453

Some good news after close today. API reported crude stock unexpectedly fell last week. Making it two weeks in a roll of unexpectedly heavy consumption. Crude stock fell 1.33 million barrels to 321 million. Oh, well - less than 1%. If you guys haven't heard, Unocal wanted to cut their e&p spending. This appeared in this morning Bloomberg for only a few hours and I could not find it anywhere else. ----------------- NEW YORK, March 17 (Reuters) - ABN AMRO Inc analyst Eugene Nowak said in a research report that he had reduced his first quarter earnings forecasts for major oil companies and he expects operating earnings per share to be 40 percent below year-ago levels. -- Nowak said that spot West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices have averaged $16.00 per barrel so far in the quarter, down $6.75 per barrel from a year ago. -- He expects full year EPS to fall 20 percent, based on an average spot WTI price of $16.50-$17.00 for the year. -- Nowak is maintaining a near term/intermediate underweighting in the sector EPS Q1 1998 Company New estimate Year Ago Amerada Hess $1.00 (loss) $0.05 (profit) Amoco Corp $0.75 $1.36 ARCO $0.60 $1.47 Chevron $0.57 $1.23 Exxon $0.63 $0.87 Kerr-McGee $0.57 $1.40 Mobil $0.78 $1.05 Murphy $0.24 $0.68 Occidental $0.25 $0.47 Phillips $0.58 $0.94 Texaco Inc $0.50 $0.92 Unocal $0.28 $0.76 USX-Marathon $0.23 $0.63

To: RGinPG who wrote (15190)	3/17/1998 8:09:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

I wouldn't get too excited unless you're trading the up and down gyrations of these stocks. We'll probably be up for next few days only to bump our heads against the overhead resistance before we come back down to support again and start the whole process over again. More of the same for severalmonths I'm afraid, but after that................... :) -Lucretius

To: RGinPG who wrote (15190)	3/17/1998 10:01:00 PM
From: marc chatman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Because of the way the late buying was focused on the Deep water guys and also tracked a bit of a rally in crude, I tend to think it was legit. But I'm also thinking there are other possibilities. For example, it could have been short covering in anticipation of a good deep-water GOM lease sale. It could have been short covering on low volume to push these stocks up so they can be shorted again from a higher level tomorrow (after sucking in a lot of unsuspecting buyers at the open). It would make a lot of sense that the shorts jumped all over these stocks for a day trade or a two day trade on the heels of the slide in crude prices and then took their profits. If that is the case, shouldn't we expect them to short again on the next dip in crude? I was tempted to pick up some more RIG late today and I am tempted to do it tomorrow as well, but I am suspicious and will proceed with caution.