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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (4999)	3/17/1998 11:48:00 PM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Yes, I'm afraid I don't follow the thread too much. I think the semi equipment sector is in a trough and it will stay there for a while. I don't have time to day-trade issues like I used to and I don't want to take a position, so I'm invested elsewhere. I'm holding a little Asyst and picked up some ESIO the other day. I might add slowly to long-term holdings on big drops, and there should be plenty as earnings reports and continued earnings come out. BTB today was gruesome. TAP finally fell under 1.00. Yes, of course the situation in Asia is relevant to the sector, duh. Anyone who doesn't want to talk about the situation in Asia doesn't want to talk about the number one factor affecting share price of any semi equipment stock. It is much more important than all the jawboning about technology advances. The companies depend on Asia for the cream and their earnings aren't going to support high multiples unless they have Asian demand for their products. Who gives a rats' a-- if Cymer can build a 193 nm laser, if half the customers don't have enough money to buy it? I will say, I expect a rebound from Korea. It's interesting to look back over the last 40 years of their economic history. Korea was dirt poor, with the economic clout of say Ecuador or Bangladesh, in the 50's. Now its considered an economic power, due to the incredible work ethic, homogenous populace, and business-oriented government. It's easy to criticize, but in terms of growth, you really have to respect what they've done. They'll be back. The Japanese and Indonesians, although posing radically different scenarios from each other, are more problematic. Who can say what will happen to them? Indonesia really isn't all that important, except for its ability to deepen recession in the area by defaulting on loans to Japan and Singapore. A major recession in Japan, though, is a big problem. And although you have to be tempted to compare Japan to Korea in many ways, remember, Japan was strong enough to attack the United States in 1941. It's a much more mature economy than Korea and I think the criticisms are more justified. Okay, enough ranting. I'm out for a month or two at least, mostly playing penny stocks and wondering if the Dow is going to tank again.