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Technology Stocks : Jabil Circuit (JBL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nelson Chang who wrote (3248)	3/17/1998 10:00:00 PM
From: jeffbas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6317

Agree 100%. Why buy when we have TWO weak quarters (AT LEAST) ahead. I would wait to see what they report and say 3 months from now. Why is anyone expecting a runup in the next 3 months, aside from a possible short term rally from a temporarily oversold condition?

To: Nelson Chang who wrote (3248)	3/17/1998 11:40:00 PM
From: WTMHouston	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 6317

Nelson: I generally agree with your points - it was less than precise for me to say I would buy at a specific point....my intent was to indicate that that was my expected target area for a buy from which I would reasonably expect at least a bounce and a recovery of some of what will certainly be significant losses tomorrow...is it a bit of catch the knife? You bet - but depending on how the price action looks, it may be a risk I am willing to take...the same goes for shorting it as well...the best time may be after an oversold bounce. I have no illusions that this stock will see the 40's again anytime in the next 6 months, if not longer...although it probably will some day. For Sansome to go from predicting and expressing extreme comfort with 30% annual growth to actual negative growth in less than 2 months is not only not positive, it is about as negative as it gets - if not also either careless, naive, or deceitful - and I don't know which. This isn't just a growth is slowing announcement, this is a revenues will be shrinking announcement...Although there was strong support around 30, that support assumed strong forward growth continuing....that assumption, at least for now, is no longer valid.... If Q3 and Q4 come in as Sansome currently predicts, i.e., around the same as Q1 from a revenue perspective, there will be around $1.90 in earnings with no currently credible expectations of significant future growth. Given today's developments, I don't feel comfortable in relying on Sansome's future predictions: it is well within the realm of reasonable likelihood that his current "feelings" also paint a rosier picture than reality. Heck, he wasn't even close to accurate in predicting revenue growth for the current quarter even though it was nearly 1/2 over when the "predictions" were made....and he is on the inside!!! He should have warned as soon as it became apparent that his previous remarks were no longer accurate - his failure to do so is irresponsible, at best. His failure to timely correct remarks that he apparently knew were no longer true led many of us to go long into this earnings announcement in reliance on his remarks. At least for now, neither he nor his current predictions deserve any trust. The ECM sector will certainly grow again at some point in the future. The questions, however, are how much, how soon, and can they do so going forward and maintain margins. The answers will ultimately determine the value of JBIL and the other companies in the sector...the days of 30%+ growth in this sector may be over for some time to come....if that is so, the days of 25-30 PE's may be over as well... All of that said, I still think it likely that my losses and losses to be on this trade can be recovered by picking and choosing buying and selling points....this stock has seldom lacked for volatility and tomorrow and the next 6 months aren't likely to be any different. Other than this play - which is turning into a major disaster -- I have generally done pretty well in JBIL, long and short: so long as it remains volatile, I expect to continue to do well trading it, this loss notwithstanding. Ultimately, Fenton was mostly right, albeit a little early...we should give credit where and when it is due, place blame and responsibility where it is deserved, accept our losses, and move on to attempts to recover it. No denial here, just my NWS opinions.... Troy