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Technology Stocks : CyberGuard Corp. (CYBG) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Menia who wrote (1334)	3/18/1998 8:46:00 AM
From: stephen allen	Respond to of 2616

Notice the ipo spoke of here is going to go out @17 times revenue. If CYBG went out out 17 times using 30 million for 97 thats 510 million market cap or 50 plus per share. That is why people are on Carberry's backside. The whole group sells at a hugh multiple to CYBG and the reason is BOB Carberry. He has no idea how to tell the story like the CEO's of other companies. By Kevin Petrie Staff Reporter 3/17/98 4:46 PM ET For Internet Security Systems, paranoia spells opportunity. Case in point: Shareholders fled Ascend (ASND:Nasdaq) stock Monday afternoon the moment word surfaced that some of the company's products have security holes. Addressing the problem on Tuesday, Ascend said that simple measures can patch whatever holes might exist, but in afternoon trading shares still wallowed at 33 13/16, down 1 3/16. Scares like the one Ascend is facing make Wall Street more fond of Internet Security Systems, or ISS Group, which is slated to go public March 24. Recent enthusiasm for Internet security offerings has helped boost interest in the ISS offering. On March 2, the company expanded the size of its offering to 3.0 million shares from 2.5 million shares. The offering's expected range is $14 to $16 per share. ISS software products detect both intruders and soft spots, alerting companies to potential problems with their Internet boxes -- and that includes the alleged problems found with Ascend gear. But, as with most good ideas involving network equipment, ISS faces stiff competition: the ubiquitous Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq). Cisco recently acquired WheelGroup, a closely held rival of ISS. ISS backers, however, are not deterred. The Internet security concern has a good lead on WheelGroup, and its recent revenue record is robust. In addition, many Wall Streeters believe that ISS could quickly become an attractive target. Along with Cisco's recent purchase, Network Associates (NETA:Nasdaq) said it will purchase Trusted Information Systems (TISX:Nasdaq), or TIS. "I don't think competing with Cisco is a problem right now," says analyst Matthew Kovar at the Yankee Group research firm. ISS has pushed product into the channel rapidly. Its software likely will prove compatible with more corporate systems. And players don't need to compete on price for now, because corporations will pay up for the peace of mind. Officials at WheelGroup and TIS could not be reached for comment. Citing an SEC-enforced quiet period, ISS simply released a statement. "We were first -- the market pioneer in security assessment and intrusion detection" for systems including Windows NT and UNIX. "The need for ISS to remain focused on this core market niche is key to our success." "This space is primed to grow pretty quickly," says Paul Cook, co-manager of the Munder NetNet fund, a small Internet-focused portfolio. He estimates that ISS' market segment will grow revenue at 50% annually for the near term. Cook is mulling whether to invest in ISS after listening to two recent conference calls that were keyed to the IPO. Already his firm owns shares of Axent (AXNT:Nasdaq), another ISS rival. Cook says ISS leads a new breed of security firms whose software studies the full range of network connections for soft spots. Previously, security concerns focused on single network sections, but that piecemeal approach has grown less effective as hackers devise new ways of worming past conventional firewalls. The price tag isn't bad, Cook says, adding that the suggested market cap is roughly nine times the revenue expected for 1998. To be sure, ISS will command a premium. The suggested offering price values ISS at 17 to 19 times 1997 revenue -- the high end of the range for its group. TIS will sell to Network Associates for roughly 7 or 8 times trailing revenue; Axent now trades at about 13 times revenue. Privately held Wheelgroup is going to Cisco for 16 to 18 times revenue, using a published report of $7 million in 1997 sales. Marquee names dot ISS' prospectus. Goldman Sachs is lead underwriter. Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, arguably the richest venture capital spring in Silicon Valley, will own nearly 9% of ISS stock after the offering. Over 16% will fall in the hands of Greylock, which invested in the recent IPO success DoubleClick (DCLK:Nasdaq). Goldman said Tuesday that the IPO will be priced the evening of Mar. 23. With 16.4 million shares outstanding, the offering would value ISS at $229 million to $262 million. Wall Street shouldn't hold its breath for earnings. In the fourth quarter ended Dec. 31, ISS grew revenue to $5.1 million from $2.2 million one year earlier (most revenue comes from licenses). The net loss widened to $1.9 million from $222,000 in the year-ago period. The company expects to post losses for the foreseeable future. As for Ascend, a company spokesman says the company can fill its own gaps. "We have our own security products" that already address the inevitable chinks in the armor of routers, says an Ascend spokesman. And the company expects to meet profit expectations this quarter, according to analyst William Rabin at J.P. Morgan. Rabin added that several carriers raved about Ascend's asynchronous transfer mode products at a J.P. Morgan conference in Dana Point, Calif. last week.

To: Terry Menia who wrote (1334)	3/18/1998 9:24:00 AM
From: satchmo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2616

mr menia: that was a remarkable guess. i am indeed dave stewart. please now post your visa or mastercard number so i can bill you for the information you are reading. that is the way i make money, since i couldn't really pick a stock any more than i can pick your nose. mr flick: am i supposed to care if a short-term oriented broker like you holds this stock or not? go ask your analyst paul merenbloom what you should do with it. i am not in the business of offering advice to pinhead retail brokers or their clients.