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To: Jeff Rogers who wrote (5027)	3/18/1998 8:28:00 AM
From: JDN	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10786

Dear Jeff: Welcome aboard as an active SI participant. If you have followed this board for a year you should know that TECH's feelings on the company change as his investment position changes. I value him for his technical advice when he gives it but as to his commentary you must take it with a grain of salt. Now as to Gruder and predictions. I believe that Mr. Gruder speaks in terms of "run rate". Meaning for instance--he likely meant that by the end of 1997 ALYD would be operating profitably NOT that ALYD would make a profit for the whole year. That NEVER seemed likely to me given the losses in the first 3 quarters. Secondly, signed contracts are NOT revenue. They are just an indication of FUTURE revenue once the work is performed. It is my BELIEF, not proof, that the larger companies wanted to enter into a contract to make sure they had a remediator LOCKED UP but these companies did NOT want to incur the cost until they ABSOLUTELY had too. 1998 by most experts is the year they absolutely have too. So the problems ALYD has had in the past will likely go away starting NOW. In summary, I think the only two things Gruder can be possibly criticized for was 1. Ramping up too fast 2. Thinking corporate america would want to fix their problems ASAP. On the other side of that equation is the fact that ALYD is now FULLY ramped and prepared to go off and running whereas other companies may now be searching for employees which rumor has it are scarce as hens teeth. JDN

To: Jeff Rogers who wrote (5027)	3/18/1998 9:31:00 AM
From: feltburner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10786

Jeff, welcome aboard. Careful, posting gets addicting, someday you'll be beating out Jeff Mitchell and Tech Master for prime post numbers like #6000, #6666, etc. Gruder has been rightfully criticized in the past for making projections he has not lived up to. It is important to remember, however, that he can only base projections upon contracts in hand and if lucky a preliminary schedule from clients as to when and how much code will be sent. If clients stray from this schedule, projections are useless. The safest thing would be for him to not make projections, yet everyone wants to hear one; much of the buzz lately is "what will he project for 1st qtr.?". Jeff Mitchell did a wonderful job a few posts back explaining the "ramp up"; regardless of what Tech says, DuPont and McDonnell Douglas (and I assume many of their other large clients) would NEVER have committed to Alydaar if Bob hadn't built that infrastructure. He could have kept the co. with few employees, landed one or two clients, and been profitable with a couple of million in revenues; however, you don't get rewarded a large market capitalization (and probably don't survive post-2000) with a few clients and no potential to ever be anything more than a sub-$5mm rev. co. You do build a future by landing many clients and having the potential to be a $100mm + rev. co. As for Bob's previous business failure, all I had to know was that it was an Ada language co. From what I remember from freshman yr. of college, Ada was being pushed hard by the gov't. as a standard language, and we were all encouraged to take as many courses as we could. When the gov't. pulled the plug, I can assure you that Bob was not the only guy in the industry caught by surprise. Your frustration and optimism are shared by almost everyone on this thread- this has not been a stock for the weak-of-heart. Buy-and-hold was the correct strategy for the early ride from 50 cents to $8 or so. Trading has been far more profitable from there, IF you were not on the sidelines during some nearly vertical moves. Who knows what strategy will work best in future? To each his own. I buy and hold because the stock has never reached what I think it is truly worth. Perhaps I will never make as much money as if I traded it w/ even modestly correct timing, but if you truly know what it is you own, it makes it a little easier to handle the downdrafts (or even get giddy about them like Tech Master!). Good luck, Felt Burner