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Biotech / Medical : North American Vaccine -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don W Stone who wrote (325)	3/18/1998 2:19:00 PM
From: Rick Strange	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 507

On March 15, 1998 I wrote (Yahoo NVX#117) about what I believed at that time, to be a significant change in the position of NVX's largest institutional shareholder. The information that I posted was from 13G/A reports dated 2/12/98 and 2/20/98 from the SEC EDGAR database relating to NVX filings. I cross-checked the information by looking at holding reported by Denver Investment Advisors via an EDGAR search. A day latter (Yahoo#123) you posted that the information contained within the 13G/A dated 2/12/98 was in error and that the share information really related to Newpark Resources holdings. Within hours, as soon as I saw your post and was able to verify that your information was correct, I acknowledged (Yahoo#126) that my original report was in error and that I was wrong. How could I have made such a blunder? I invite anyone, more objective than yourself, to pull up the 2/20/98 13G/A in question by doing an EDGAR search either under NVX or Denver Investment Advisors. They will find that the very first items of information within that report identify the report as about NVX as reported by Denver Investment Advisors. My error was that I scanned directly from there to the data about share information. Had I read the "boilerplate" line-by-line I would have probably seen the reference to Newpark. I didn't and as it was I wrote a report based upon a corrupted and erroneous SEC file. The SEC is now aware of this file and acknowledge a data entry error and have said that they will fix the problem. I have never tried to hide the fact that I consider NVX to be way overvalued and from time to time have held either short positions or owned puts. As for desperation, I can understand yours in light of the fact that NVX is 40% off its highs since October. Yours is the hysterical voice in this dialog. Finaly, you have never shown a willingness to explore a difference of opinion. Indeed, too often when you lack facts or logic to support your point of view you resort to insults to silence those critical of NVX.

To: Don W Stone who wrote (325)	3/21/1998 12:08:00 PM
From: Don W Stone	Respond to of 507

STRONG,STRONG,STRONG BUY How ,come? We just got more input on how the NVX BEARS support their position. It is incredable, no, a better description is pitiful. I am referring to an article in Barrons, March 23,1998, in which Barrons interviews M. Margolies, President of Avalon Research Group. I don't know the first thing about this outfit but I do feel very confortable disagreeing with what he had to say about NVX in an article that covered 5 other companies. For all I know he has a lot of influence and may have had something to do with the activity in NVX for the past 2 fridays. We all know that Barrons "leaks" pretty consistantly. Well here is my first volley. Point one: He says " Connaught, AHP and SKB already dominate the market." That is a correct observation but to mean anything it bears two assumptions 1) that the DTaP market is a "commodity" market and will remain that way. The BULLS don't think so, CERTIVA will change the game. It is "SAFE" and later on will walk away with it's "combination" vaccines. He is a bit ahead of himself on the Influenza B vaccine combo. FDA recently ruled against Connaught saying that they cannot compromise the "immune response" of a vaccine when they introduce it in combo. The next combo will be NVX's DTaP-IPV vaccine that has been in use in Denmark now for over a year with great success. Point two: He is absolutely right that more children will be getting vaccinated but that to me conflicts with his statement that the market is already crowded . It is a well known fact that "conformance" with DTP has been a real problem because of the known problems with "safety" , serious adverse events, associated with pertussis vaccines. The DTaP vaccines that are on the market now do not eliminate the problem, they reduce it. Based on the clinical trials all reported some serious adverse events.. THe serious adverse events that showed up in the clinical trials will show up in the market place and it will effect public attitude towards a particular vendor. Now enter NVX/CERTIVA, with a safety profile that has yet to report a single serious adverse event, supported by the largest post marketing study ever performed with a DTaP vaccine and the main deterrent to getting a pertussis vaccination is elimminated once and for all. Yes more children will be getting vaccinated thanks to CERTIVA. Point three: His numbers really don't support his conclusion regarding potential earnings . They only support his position that NVX is not going to be successful selling their vaccines, in his opinion.. If you believe that to be the case you certainly aren't 'long" NVX today. The CDC does account for the lions share of the business for vaccines. That is good news because NVX will get their share of that business and with his $17 figure per dose that adds up to a pretty nice revenue number. Now one has to add to that what Abbott will generate in revenue for NVX which I feel it safe to assume will be a fair share of the balance of the market. Add to that the "milestone payments that will become due from Connaught and Abbott and possibly others. Now add revenues from the rest of the world. Point is I feel a lot more confortable with what the Bulls have to say about earnings potential. As to 1998 ? We all know that first it is FDA approval and then it is indeed only a matter of time that the story will play out and those that are "long" will be BIG WINNERS . Point four: Once again we see just how "shorted sighted" the NVX Bears really are about NVX. NOT A SINGLE MENTION ABOUT ANY OF THE OTHER VACCINES IN THE NVX PIPELINE. I like his closing comments: "Some of Avalon's clients happen to be bulls in Avalon's short sale stocks." " I'll call guys who own an amount of a stock and tell them ,' Here's a fact you should look at'" " They hang up the phone on me...... I call it denial." I wonder how many of those are NVX longs. :-}