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Biotech / Medical : Alteon (ALT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rudy Saucillo who wrote (234)	3/18/1998 4:14:00 PM
From: Mac S. Giballa	Respond to of 318

Huge problem, this will greatly limit the ability to get broad FDA approval. Most diabetics fall into the type II (ACTION 2) range, so the possible value of Pimagedine is sharply reduced. The ACTION 1 trial, on the other hand, will announce results in about 3-4 months, and I am pretty confident it will be a big winner. Unfortunately the market for the drug will not be huge. I would however buy confidently on moves below $8. They will occur, you can expect the brokers to temporarily bail out, and a flood of downgrades. I would think that FDA approval in late 1999,with an initial indication for type I diabetics should mean annual sales of near $150 million within 5 years. The ESRD indication should mean dosing to another 70,000 patients, with annual sales of > $40 million. Present value given the uncertainty... I don't know. But I'll buy on dips.