Thanks Peter, for the link to the AACR and abstracts.
In January, JT formed a collaboration with Hoffman La-Roche to market Viracept in Japan. Nippon-Roche, a Japanese unit of Roche, will market and sell Viracept in Japan, and Yoshima Pharmaceuticals will sell Viracept in Tokyo and Osaka. PW estimates that Agouron will receive a 10% royalty. Viracept is now marketed in 25 countries.
FWIW, Zacks raised Agouron to a 1 last week. They had a 5 in December.
Re: If you're still looking for <some good fundamental input> for a start, try the abstracts that Agouron will present at the American Association of Cancer Research meeting in New Orleans this coming weekend, March 28 to April 1. I was very impressed with all the research and collaborations Agouron is involved with. For those worried about Agouron's pipeline..it looks pretty healthy to me.
Interesting that Agouron is working on a project with Glaxo-Wellcome and researchers from the NIH and NCI (Abstract 3137).
The abstracts involving Agouron include:
1. Identification of PARP, a nuclear enzyme implicated in the recognition and repair of DNA strandbreaks -in collaboration with the University of Newcastle- United Kingdom (1515)
2. Altered growth and genomic instability in gadd45 null mouse, the product of the p53-regulated gene (3137)
Agouron is working with the NIH,NCI and Glaxo-Wellcome.
3. Using computer modeling to explain the "Kisliuk" Effect - Agouron (2939)
4. Cell Death by AG2034 in p53+ cells (4134).
5. Inhibition of colon cancer by AG3340 (2059)
Agouron with UCSD Cancer Center, Hoffman-La Roche (???)
6. AG3340 and orthotopic lung cancer (2061)
Agouron with Lunenfeld Research Institute & Mount Sinai Hospital and University of Toronto
7. AG3340 and prostate tumors (4400)
Agouron and U.C. San Diego Cancer Center, San Diego
8. AG3340 and glioma (2058).
Agouron and the University of Calgary, Alberta.
9. AG337 re: cell cycle arrest, apoptosis, mictochondrial perturbations (4133).
Newcastle Mater Hospital, Australia.
Apparently those who follow Agouron feel there is news coming. It certainly looks like there might be some positive surprises coming out of the abstracts.
The fiscal Q3 98 earnings will be released the second week of April.
Viracept maintains a 30% market share, and according to PW, Agouron is on track to meet or exceed PW's projected $92 million in US sales this quarter. The PW estimate is for .41c, which includes an eleven million dollar payment from Roche (20c towards earnings) upon European approval. Viracept has been launched in Europe earlier than expected, so the actual sales or all manufacturing revenues from Roche may have been underestimated. And approval is pending in other countries: Thailand, Canada Mexico etc.....
Nippon-Roche announced yesterday they are now selling Viracept in Japan.
As far as the prescription data, it was hard not to notice the strong prescription data last week and the weaker data this week, but we should try not to be influenced by the fluctuations as the weekly data are not a reliable indicator of overall trends.
Although the February scripts may have looked low; 141,839 total scripts vs 152,655 in January, if you divide by the number of days in the month, February's total script data is 5065/day versus 4924/day in January, or 2.8% higher in February.
As Bribear said: >If overall PI sales are increasing, and Viracept is maintaining relative market share, then absolute sales are increasing >and this appears to be the case. I do think it is important to consider the number of days in the month, since the more days in the month, the more pills etc.
It is possible that the growth in Fortovase market share reflects patients switching over to Fortovase from Invirase and not real growth. Invirase and Fortovase are different versions of Saquinavir from Roche. One is the hard cell, and Fortovase is the newer more potent soft gel. The total number of scripts for Invirase combined with scripts for Fortovase in December, January, and February has been stable (19.76%, 20.16%, 20.08% respectively) even though Invirase scripts declined and Fortovase increased. Also, if one combines the script data for Invirase with Saquinavirs, the monthly growth rate for both is the same as the growth rate for Viracept in February (2.6%). It is probably too early to tell yet.
BTW, Peter Singleton, what studies are you referring to with the "excellent clinical data" of Fortovase. The 32 week data in the SPICE study showed clearly that results were superior for those who received two protease inhibitors (Nelfinavir + Saquinavir) in combination with nrtis compared to those receiving one protease inhibitor plus 2 nrtis. The 32 week data comparing Viracept to Saquinavir was similar when using an assay <50 copies. Keep in mind that when comparing studies it is important to look at baseline CD4 counts and RNA levels. As many studies have shown, the lower the initial viral load, and the higher the CD4 count, the better the results. The study by Sension et al that was presented at the Retro meeting did show strong results for Fortovase in protease inhibitor na‹ve patients. And CD4 counts were high, (mean CD4 was 419) and viral loads were low (mean - 64,000 copies Abstract 369).
Part of the increase in Norvir/Fortovase scripts may be due to their use in dual combination therapy either for salvage therapy or first line treatment. At present, the combination of Ritonavir/ Saquinavir is the only well validated duo, but Nelfinavir/Saquinavir is an option as well, according to Deeks.
The dual combination of Ritonavir/Nelfinavir may turn out to be as effective as Ritonavir/Saquinavir. Joe Gallant and Charles Flexner reported a preliminary study on this combination at the Chicago meeting and gave reasons why they thought the combination of Nefinavir/Ritonavir was attractive: differing resistance patterns, i.e. D30N for Nelfinavir and V82A for Ritonavir; convenience of twice daily dosing; enhancing effect of RTV on NFV (increases NFV by 2 to 2 1/2 fold). Not enough data is available yet but the results so far are promising.
(from The Hopkins HIV Report: Summary of the 5th Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections: II. New Antiretroviral Agents.by John Bartlet
hopkins-aids.edu
See Table 1. Results from selected Clinical Trials of Antireroviral Therapy. |
