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Technology Stocks : Microsoft - When to short -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Mike McFarland who wrote (86)3/18/1998 11:27:00 PM
From: Russ  Respond to of 96
 
No, I was talking about something different. MS tends to pay a somewhat low wage for the industry, but grants extensive stock options to employees. The costs associated with that are treated differently than payroll expense, but they are a form of payroll expense. (Note: this is standard practice for most tech companies, but I think MS numbers are fairly extreme).

For the last fiscal year, from the 10K at EDGAR, we have

Net income - 3,454 million
Earnings/share - 2.63
Stock buybacks for employees exercising options 3,101 million

Net income treating this as a payroll expense - 353 million
Earnings/share - 0.27

So, I was wrong. Actual earnings are 1/10th stated earnings (for the quarter ended September, they actually ran at a loss).

Also, here's a quote from the 10K

The market value of all outstanding stock options was $30.2 billion as of June 30, 1997. Microsoft enhances its repurchase program by selling put warrants.

Note: These stock buybacks do not enhance the value of the stock by retiring shares from circulation. They're given to employees who can then resell them.

Some day they'll go down, and hard, but that day may be a long way off.

I think YHOO is way overvalued, but I don't dare short, and the puts are awfully pricey.

-Russ



To: Mike McFarland who wrote (86)5/8/1998 12:59:00 AM
From: Mike McFarland  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 96
 
Gee, I've been ignoring MSFT, and did not
even notice that the chart is looking bad...

here is a message I posted on another thread

(continued somewhat off topic--re MSFT)
<But I think Gates sees that there
are two major arenas that people buy
computers for....work (Office suite) and
play (games) and as always,
he wants a piece of every pie.

I've added the emphasis,

...and that could be Microsoft's downfall.
From news.com:
"Microsoft stock fell today amid renewed
speculation that antitrust regulators would
file another lawsuit against the software giant
next week."
news.com

Will be interesting to see if there is support at $80
quote.yahoo.com

I used to play the puts in MSFT, wish I bot a few
a couple weeks ago...