Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (14992)	3/19/1998 9:28:00 AM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 18056

Dipy, welcome to the Mohan's thread. I noticed that some posters on the Bob Brinker's cult thread has been giving you hard time. Too bad they can't see quality in the postings of a well informed investor. Nor do they seem to care for the wrong calls made by Bob. Semi-equipment companies, for instance. Bob is bullish on the sector. One of Bob's cheerleaders once posted that the only way semiconductor companies stay in business and compete is by keep upgrading even if it meant losing money. I didn't challenge that poster (I know it is of no use) but my take has been that, "when your operations are losing money and you are up to your neck in debt, how do you pay for the chip making equipment you buy?" [in Mike Burke's words, with sea shells! -g-] Stanford Telecom is another company on which Bob is wrong for two years. It's a dog. Well, that puts me in the "being wrong" category because, I too was bullish on STII about a year ago. One more noteworthy goofs of Bob is that in June or July he said that the market is telling him that Christmas will be great for PC sales. A sentiment echoed by the very brokers and wall street analysts he despises. The fact is Bob has been dead wrong on the PC sales for the Christmas season. His market calls were right on. But for the wrong reasons. I wonder if he ever admitted to the fact that this is a liquidity driven market, not fundamental driven. Though I just shake my head about the SI cheerleads of BOB, I respected Bob as a market maven. However, off late I am beginning to see Bob as someone with double standards. He says KO and Intel as overvalued. He said the valuation of the market is a "big deal" in his timing model. He often calls earnings disappointments as a "rout." Yet, he goes on record name calling the "bad news bears" when in fact they are using the same yard sticks [valuation, earnings disappointments] to justify their bearishness. The way I see Bob now is no better than a Wall Street broker whose only interest is to see perpetually higher stock prices so that his very livelihood is not threatened. When Bob says that there could be bear market ahead of us, which his timing model may not be able to predict, I belive him. -MMV

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (14992)	3/19/1998 11:04:00 PM
From: tekgk	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 18056

I agree, most of it will simply vanish. The stock market is not like a bank account where money in and money out balance, especially when the price drops quickly (the reverse is also true). A fortunate few will be short or in cash when the next bear begins. I believe that many of them will pick up the bargains. One of my relatives bought real estate and bargain stocks in the thirties - he told me that his friends said he was nuts when he got out before the peak and nuts when he got back in. He never had to work his entire life - his friends did. The herd will simply have to wait for 26 years to get back to where they were at the top, like they did after 29 and after 66. In both cases the herd lost a least 75% of their money over the first 12 years of both bear markets. The herd has always been wrong historically. How else do you explain why 2% of the people own 95% of the wealth? A more recent example is Japan. Where did the trillions in 80's real estate go? Where did the stock market trillions go? The answer is easy to see from the outside - it's gone and it won't be back to the old highs in constant currency units for at least a quarter of a century. I have noticed that the same talking heads that predicted that Japan could never crash because they were so productive and had so much money are now saying the same thing about us and our markets - a sure sign of trouble ahead.