I have read your posts here and feel nothing with sense.
You first talked about Asian crisis, and then talk about the Asian imports which is not great , because it will prohibit companies here to increase price. All of those did not make sense at all.
First I will let you know what the Asian crisis is. As you know in the past ten or more years,
Asian countries , especially country like korea , build up their factories, basic infrastructures , and some of those build up came with short term loans from overseas. For example, Korea built up
its semiconductor industry in the past ten years, the auto industries in the past ten years, petrochemical industries in the past ten years, its iron , ship industries ...etc, a lot of money
used for those build ups came from short term loans from overseas. The theory is if you
make short term loans for consumption, you will be in trouble, but if you use the loans to
build up your industry which will increase the wealth of the country, you maybe better off in the long run. The problem for most of Asian countries, countries like Korea, Thai, Malasia, is they can not get a long term loan to refiance their short term loans before the crisis, this is not a problem of
their basic industries, but a financial problem, and it can be resolved with a long term loan.
So, the Asian problem is a short term financial one, its industries are still intact.
The Asian financial crisis startedt last June from Thailand, and all the bad effect had already
reflected in the past 10 months, and now is in a recovery mode, so it is now from the valley to the top of the hill in the comming months. This will continue to help the world economics
in the months ahead.I think you already heard that Asian's stock market already started to recover.
The import from Asia is good thing for the US consumers, since Asia's products are
complementary to those of US, most imports from Asia are consumer products, shoes, tvs,
small consumer electronics, ...etc, which are not in competition with the US industries, and will not generate pressure to the US industries. While exports to Asia are computers,C PUs,
airplanes , Autos, medical instruments, semiconductor equipments ...etc. The reason that
US companies can't increase the price of their products are not competition from Asia, but competition among themselves.
As to the interest of Asia, I do not see the Asian leaders will be stupid enough to hike the rate
at this moment which will degrade their capability to compete in export, because the cost
of loans will be higher for their manufacturers. By export, they can make as much dollars
as they can which are needed most seriously now. The competition for Asian countries are
among themselves, because they have similar industries. And the imports from Asia will not increase the trade deficit of US too much, because , even the quantity is increased, the
total dollar amount is not increased to much, because in the past couple of months the Asian
currency of most Asian countries had depreciated quite a lot against the US dollars.
As to CPQ, it is now in a transition period , from indirect sales to direct sales and BTO.
Once the transition period is over, CPQ will be in a very good shape. For DEC, it won't be
a burdern to CPQ. DEC is a technology rich company, but it did know how to market
their products, just like you hold a lot of treasuries, but you do not know how to make the best use of it . I think you already heard the layoff rumors from DEC, DEC can save
up to 2 Billions USD by laying off 20000 people in the next one year ( I am sorry to say that , but I bet that is one of CPQ's strategic plan) .
So, just do not talk nonsense on this thread to horrify those investors, especially when the
quiet period is due to be over next week when CPQ is to announce its restructure plan for DEC. How many shares you have on short position with CPQ ? Wish you a sound sleep at night with your short position while CPQ has dropped to such low level. Any good news
can move the stock price significantly, I mean up.I think you know the quiet period will be over next week, and CPQ can talk loudly in public about its plans. I think you have heard the
theory of "SPRING". Once you have compressed so much, it will bounce back fiercely, especially for companies like CPQ, MSFT ... etc, which are leaders in its respective industry. |
