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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (5017)	3/19/1998 12:58:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Re: " my question would be to each of you, has the market discounted all this bad news already? ... The legion of problems faced by Japan have received much attention in the press, making it seem very unlikely that a solution exists." Multiple choice answer. Either: a) Stock traders and investors don't read the newspapers, so the market has not discounted the bad news; or b) Stock traders and investors do read the newspapers, but they don't believe what they read, so the market has not discounted the bad news; or c) Any impacts to early- to mid-1998 semi industry earnings caused by the Asian flu were discounted by the market in late 1997. Best wishes, I2

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (5017)	3/19/1998 2:32:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Robert, "Since the title of this thread includes the old saw about blood running in the streets, my question would be to each of you, has the market discounted all this bad news already? " This is obviously the big question. I have no answer but there was an interview on CNBC with someone from First Call that I found interesting. (I was not paying full attention so don't toast me if I mis-stated the message) First Call said earnings pre-warning so early is alarming. The analysts have already downgraded growth rate from about 12% before to just over 1% for the first qtr of 1998. This is also very alarming. Furthermore, the second qtr is expected to be more of same. The bullishness, however, can come from the fact that everyone is expecting full recovery by the last two qtrs of the year. He said that the growth rate for the last qtr of 1998 is now pegged at around 19%. (regarding this growth rate, I can only assume he is talking about the entire market and not the DOW or S&P) Needless to say, if the street concensus holds true, this could be huge buy opportunity for not only the semi-eq but just about anything else, assuming the market is going to sky-rocket by year end. On the other hand, I personally find it hard to share this optimism. The analysts may be choosing the wait-and-see attitude. I remember AMAT saying that they are clueless as to what Asia is going to do for 1998. That has to be the most honest statement from any company this year. Today's trade figures are puzzling. As expected, the trade gap widens against Korea and Indonesia. Japan, however, actually has a reduction in trade deficit. How can that be? I gave it a lot of thought this morning and found no answer. It certainly can't be because we over estimated Japan's financial woes? Ramsey

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (5017)	3/19/1998 5:34:00 PM
From: Ron Bower	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Robert, "blood running in the streets" IMO - Anytime there's a 'crisis', there should be another company that can take advantage of it. Companies will be closing down some operations in favor of outsourcing. Look for the potential supplier. Companies will go bankrupt. Look for the competitor that has a strong balance sheet to buy them out or pick up their business. Most of these companies have fallen in price (baby - bathwater effect), but some are going to come out of this in great shape. JMHO, Ron PS - I find the recent contributions to this thread to be excellent. It may have strayed from the topic, but each post has definitely been worth reading. I strongly agree with those that feel discussion of economic events and sector analysis is crucial to good investing.