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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Oliver who wrote (5021)	3/19/1998 1:44:00 PM
From: Mason Barge	Respond to of 10921

I'm only following these with casual interest at this point, but ESIO is one of my favorites. I have a screen to alert me if it falls under $35 and right now I'm wishing I had followed my plan and picked up a bunch in early March. I saw the orders to Hyundai and someone in Japan, for about $3MM each if memory serves. I'd be surprised if ESIO wasn't trading over $80 in the next two or three years, to tell you the truth. These good, solid value-added equipment companies should come out of the slump with pretty certain upside. ALthough I like the diversity in ESIO, in some cases it troubles me, especially if the product lines are not connected or similar, or the core business is declining (I'm thinking UTEK and SVGI, for example). AMAT is another example of beneficial diversity (although I think they're going to get their butts-kicked in CMP). If you're looking for long-term capital gains, this would be a nice place to park 5 or 10% of your portfolio.

To: Mark Oliver who wrote (5021)	3/19/1998 2:08:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Mark - If they could get partial payments upfront to cover expenses, and make full payments later, this seems like a better situation than laying off employees. They would get their money eventually, wouldn't they? Afterall, do we really expect to see Hyundai go bankrupt? For that matter, do we expect to see Hyundai, LG Semicon, Samsung or others go bankrupt? Actually some of them may go bankrupt. One of the IMF requirements is that bankruptcy be made easier to force. Historically SEA has not allowed bankruptcy and this in combination with the lack of accounting transparency has made it very very hard to tell whether you will get your money back on any loan. Until the IMF requirements really start to occur, lending to Hyundai, ... is a big risk. That is why western banks aren't supplying letters of credit. Do you really think that AMAT et al know the risk better than the banks? Clark

To: Mark Oliver who wrote (5021)	3/22/1998 4:16:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10921

Mark, companies such as American Motors, Anaconda, Penn Central and Western Union were all as big as the three chaebols you mentioned. They all disappeared with their investors investment. As a matter of fact some four lesser chaebols have gone down already last year. The problems with the trio you mentioned is that they have to sell their PROFITABLE jewels at discount just to generate enough cash for day to day operations. I am not saying that any of these three will go bankrupt, but I am certainly far from sure they will not. The transparency of their books is lacking, but from what is mentioned in various media their cash flow at this point in time does not cover their interest obligations, and unless a rapid turn around is achieved, a company like Samsung might have to decide whether it stays in the LCD business or in the Dram business, being unable to fund both businesses at this time. For a small company to take on these banking risks (and particularly with the lack of financial transparency of the potential debtors) is bad business practice. They should get GE capital into the picture to structure sales/lease back deals on the equipment and make sure they get paid upfront. Zeev