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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (21249)	3/19/1998 5:07:00 PM
From: memery	Respond to of 42771

Steve, I think you're missing about 20K: >>Further, if I understand correctly he gets 80K a year over the other board members.<< Non-employee Directors of the Company receive an annual retainer of $20,000, plus a Board meeting fee of $1,200 for each Board meeting attended; the vice chairman receives an additional annual retainer of $100,000. I read this as $120K/year plus the fee. Down to 10K/month from $10K/week. Still not a bad gig. Mark

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (21249)	3/19/1998 8:36:00 PM
From: Don Earl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Hi Steve, I also think there may be a time to buy this year and that there is a good chance that the law suit will ultimately force the remainder of the necessary house cleaning. I think Novell is in very serious trouble right now. Way beyond anything they are showing the public. When the news finally hits the street where even a dummy can see it, I suspect NOVL will loose half it's value in a heart beat. Consider this form FY98Q1-10Q: <In general, the Company has experience continued competitive pressures in the marketplace, resulting in the action taken in the third quarter of fiscal 1997 described above. These competitive pressures also resulted in lower overall revenues in the first quarter of fiscal 1998 compared to the first quarter of fiscal 1997.> At the end of FY97Q3, the company said inventory levels were below 45 days. At the end of FY97Q4 the company said they were trying to get inventory levels below 45 days. It looks like the channel is stuffed again, in only 2 quarters, with revenue already way down. Since the law suit was filed 3 weeks ago the CFO and one board member have "resigned" and the companies largest private shareholder is calling for the resignation of 3 more board members. That's a pretty radical reaction to a suit that is without merit. As close as I can tell there are three law firms involved in the suit so far. Those guys smell blood in the water. The worst part is that Novell can't afford this kind of PR right now and there isn't anything they can do to stop it. I don't think it's that hard to figure out what's going to happen, the tough part is when. A restatement of earnings could take place in 6-10 weeks if the law firms go after it like they did with 3 Com. If they wait 6 months for the 5.0 release, the channel is going to be too big a mess to fix without another house cleaning party. The best bet would probably be to announce that they will start cutting back shipments of older products at the end of this quarter. I'll bet Schmidt is starting to wish he was back at Sun. Regards, Don