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Biotech / Medical : Alteon (ALT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: (no name provided) who wrote (239)	3/19/1998 4:52:00 PM
From: Bill Tomko	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 318

There is no way that this news can be viewed as positive;however, I do think you are over looking a coulpe of key facts. 1) Type I while much smaller is still potenially a 100 million plus market. 2) ESRD is also reasonable mkt. 3) until we know what the facts are that the review panel saw we really don't know if the project can be saved or not while small there is still some basis to think it can be saved.See NXCO and WL study of last summer 4) there are additional follow on products in the pipleline which may not have or can be constructed to not have the side effect problems. Please note that there was great question as to if this approach would even prove effective at all. if it can be established that this is an effective treatmnet then it is possible additional research can eliminate or reduce to a reasonable basis the side effect profile.As hard as it is to believe,proof of effectiveness,side effects not withstanding, is progress. Please also recall that when you are dealing with Type II you are dealing with a fairly sick pat. population, accordingly WHEN YOU KNOW what the panels concerns are it MAY be possible to go forward by eliminateing pat. with XYZ condition as canidates for taking the drug. REMEMBER THAT MILITARY ADVISE; NO SITUTATION IS EVER AS GOOD AS BAD AS IT FIRST APPEARS,KEEP YOUR HEAD! At this point we need to wait for additional facts, i.e. the damage is done there is only another $4 that can be lost and much more potenailly to be be gained

To: (no name provided) who wrote (239)	3/20/1998 4:38:00 PM
From: Fat John	Respond to of 318

Type I diabetes has always been the major market for Pimagidene. These patients have the most serious form of the disease (no beta cells in the pancreas), and therefore are at most risk for secondary complications. Remember that ALL Type I diabetics are diagnosed and on therapy. Of the 14 million Type II diabetics only half are diagnosed and half of them are on drug therapy. Of those on drug therapy, many are controlled well enough that they would not be prime candidates for a treatment that is preventive in nature. Much the way Fosamax (from Merck) is doing well in the treatment of osteoporosis patients but poorly in the prevention of osteoporosis market, Pimagidene's real opportunity is in those patients who are already heading down the slippery slope of complications. Secondly, if a company is targeting a therapy at a smaller, sicker patient population, it can usually charge a higher price. Thus, if you assume a $2,000 cost of therapy instead of $1,000 and 250K overt nephropathy patients (Type I only), the market is at least $500 million US and $1 billion WW. This is not just wishful thinking. The ONLY way that the ACTION I trial could continue given the side effects seen in ACTION II is if the risk/benefit (side effects to efficacy) ratio is positive. Therefore, we can conclude that there is a good shot at approvable efficacy with manageable side effects in the Type I patient population. The market consistently under and overestimates probabilities of success in situations like this. At $13, ALTN had too much good news built in. At $5 the street is discounting too heavily. In any event, we'll know in about 6.5 months.