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To: TREND1 who wrote (30843)	3/19/1998 3:26:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 53903

larry, volume is real loooooow...

To: TREND1 who wrote (30843)	3/19/1998 8:24:00 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Larry: I totally agree with your observation. For the last two years, funds have had a neat ploy. Let's say that a fund favourite puts out bad news after 4:00 PM. Average investor reads the bad news, and calls broker next morning at 9:00 AM...."sell that ugly stock at the opening". Broker is a bit slow, or notes action at the offering. Two minutes later, stock is UP. Broker calls client..."stock is up, are you sure it was bad news?" Client scratches head, "I guess I was wrong...cancel sell order". This is often referred to as "in-your-face" trading. In manias, it works. A couple of quick observations before I hit the road for a few days. Have been staring at 9 quarter's worth of MU results for a bit. - Revenues.....bumpy but downhill over that period. Was $1.2 billion in Q1 96, now under $800.0 million. Under $1.0 billion in 8 of nine quarters. - COGS INCREASED STEADILY over the whole period. Under $600.0 million in Q1 96......now over $700.0 M,....... IN SPITE OF SLUMPING SALES - Earnings before taxes bumpy, but downhill over the period. (excepting asset sales). In Q1 96, earnings were close to half revenues, now they are negative. - The rate of deterioration is steepening. Things that have been slowly deteriorating, are now picking up speed. Nine quarters, and the important numbers have been heading in the wrong direction. How do we spell "discount"? Second point: Dram prices really on skids. Today saw 16 Mbit selling in size at $2.00 to $2.20. Now for the shocker. 64 Mbit selling today at $10.00, occasionally BELOW $10.00 ! Source of info is excellent. At $2.00, MU is shipping 16 Mbit chips at just better than half all-up cost of production.......Think of it as a company that wraps its chips in dollar bills in the packaging process. Chapter 11 doesn't take long at this rate. To give him full due, Steve referred to the memory boys "subsidizing the box builders" months ago. Of course that is not their desire. Are we looking at a "virtual company" in the making? Best, Earlie