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Technology Stocks : Hummingbird Comm. (HUMC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Loucks who wrote (1422)	3/19/1998 8:27:00 PM
From: Bill Arndt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2018

Paul, it would probably have to be an E-lunch but I will make the bet anyway. Or maybe if we both attend the Annual meeting in April I could collect then. I haven't spent much time actually working out the figures but I have let the possible earnings estimates rumble around my head a bit. As I stated, I think that Exceed revenue may be slowing a bit, but NFS and HostExplorer revenues may be kicking in more than in previous quarters. Q198 was only .59 ; I expect that was due to slower Exceed sales. Even if Exceed sales stay even with last quarter, then .67 is doable given my optimistic expectations for the other products. If Exceed sales really tank, then we may end up at .59 or lower. Two reasons why Exceed may pick up in Q298 1) increased market share. Due to market dominance, a decision to purchase Exceed may becoming a "no brainer" for many managers. The large market share may be creating a snowball effect where decision makers simply go with the most popular and standardized product (like pentium, windows95, etc). As long as the product remains price competitive and of high quality the market share could increase simply because they are the most well know competitor . We could see an INTEL like dominance of the PC X-server market eventually (that's about 80%). 2) The slowdown in Q198 may have been somewhat related to the Asian debacle and resulting uncertainty. I expect NFS and HostExplorer to pick up simply because I work with this type of software and I see an increasing demand for it. The Win95/WinNT migration is probably helping sales. Just my optimistic thoughts on the subject. Do you know something that I don't? Bill.