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Technology Stocks : Safeguard Scientifics SFE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bryan Steffen who wrote (1249)3/20/1998 12:11:00 AM
From: William R. Polk  Respond to of 4467
 
Current Short Interest of Portfolio Nasdaq stocks:

Company February January
CATP 660,846 561,350
CCSC 155,550 116,309
CMPC 1,382,075 1,350,254
CVSN 15,616 16,982
DTPI 612 1,221
ISCG 8,674 8,300
OAOT 101,586 88,662
SCAI 704,843 339,609
TESI 13,891 7,529

Of all the above I am most struck by the increase in the short
interest in SCAI. A 108% increase and yet the stock price is more
or less the same as it was a month ago.



To: Bryan Steffen who wrote (1249)3/20/1998 6:56:00 AM
From: Timothy R. West  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 4467
 
RE: NAV CALCULATION

Investor interest is likely waning, but hang in there. Putting on LOW RISK positions is the key to sound investing. It is frustrating to watch SFE because it has lagged the market so badly; As a consequence, many people have lost interest in SFE and analysts don't get paid handsomely for following SFE either (my assumption). Usually an analyst upgrade could pop the stock $2 overnight.

I used to calc SFE NAV each day, but need to update for recent IPO's and position changes and stock repurchases, net of new stock issued.
So I'll go to safeguard.com to get the info. I also like their new FAQ (Freq Asked Quest) section; It is very helpful to investors new to SFE.

Best to all,

Tim West
technicaltim.com



To: Bryan Steffen who wrote (1249)3/20/1998 1:29:00 PM
From: John Arnopp  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 4467
 
DocuCorp has been extremely strong this rights offering period. I don't belive any other offering has shown this stability and strength. DOCCV is trading at a 20% premium to is value relative to DOCCR!

What does this mean? I think that it bodes well for Safeguard. With some greater publicity (I think the on-line MSN Investor article helped recently), this stock could move more, and start trading at a premium to NAV. I wouldn't want to see it get overheated, but perhaps Fortune should do a follow-up to their May '96 (?) article. Perhaps people feel they can invest in IPOs directly now (through DLJ, Fidelity, etc.), and don't need to use a vehicle like Safeguard. But after many of them get burned on poor investments, perhaps Safeguard will get more respect.

Other macro factors are the increase by pension funds in VC investments (finally!). Examples are the Penn. Early Stage partnership with Safeguard, and the recently announced intention of Cal-PERS to increase its VC investments. These investors are generally very conservative and have very deep pockets, so for them to be increasing investments here should be a good sign, rather than a top-of-the-market signal (IMO).

The other incredible thing about Safeguard is how fast it's pipeline is growing outside of its traditional private partnerships: i.e., SCP Equity Partners, which is adding companies left and right.

Stay the course, Bryan and all. I'm in for the very long term.

--John