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To: Peter Yang who wrote (40258)	3/19/1998 6:29:00 PM
From: Joseph Colombo	Respond to of 61433

Peter, Your math is probably correct, but I would be surprised if it doesn't land on 35. And if it doesn't, than 30. Sounds simplistic, but my Recollection is it never seems to land in between. I think everyone on this thread is watching this time, so lets take this up tomorrow after 4:00pm. Joe

To: Peter Yang who wrote (40258)	3/19/1998 6:35:00 PM
From: AlanH	Respond to of 61433

Peter, I'd say you're headed in the right direction. By considering how positions must be closed -- and comparing that with other relevant data -- a directional pattern arises. (Caveat: it's a game of probabilities.)

To: Peter Yang who wrote (40258)	3/19/1998 6:37:00 PM
From: Gary Wisdom	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 61433

Re: <<As of today, both March 30 puts and March 35 calls are out of money>> You're neglecting the fact that the largest call OI is the March 35s at 18542 and the March 35 puts at 7838. Thus, they will make the most money if the stock closes exactly at $35. That's my bet. But, then again, I would have NEVER guessed we'd see $31 this week. Guess we'll find out tomorrow.

To: Peter Yang who wrote (40258)	3/19/1998 6:49:00 PM
From: Dana Weick	Respond to of 61433

Your equation is incorrect: The outstanding March 30 calls are worth (x-30)8953, when x>30 The outstanding March 35 puts are worth (35-x)7838 when x<35 Therefore your equation should have read: Total = 8953(x-30) + 7838(35-x) which reduces to: Total = 1115x + 5740 Correction, deleted the rest of my response as it was it error. You do need to consider the price at which each option was written in order to determine and "pressure". Example, if the stock was at 34 and 1000 30 calls were written for 5pts and 500 35 puts were written for 2 pts where is the option writers maximum profit? You can't go by just the open interest.