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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AlanH who wrote (40276)	3/19/1998 9:20:00 PM
From: Chris Ariens	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 61433

I've done my own test to see where the options expiration theory is leading us for tomorrow. I created a chart that shows the open interest for each series of option expiring in March, and projected the net payout to the option writers at exercise. Here is what I found: ASND Price Payout 29 8,648,800 29.5 7,959,550 29.9375 7,356,413 30 7,270,250 30.0625 7,282,419 30.5 7,367,600 31 7,464,950 31.5 7,562,300 32 7,659,650 32.5 7,757,000 33 7,854,350 33.5 7,951,700 34 8,049,050 34.5 8,146,400 35 8,243,750 35.5 9,660,100 36 11,076,450 Clearly, we can see that in the interest of those with the outstanding written option positions, their preferred price is 30. If not 30, then as low a price above 30 as possible - since 30.5 is preferable to 29.5. Here is the entire chart for those who are interested: Calls Strike OI Profit @ Price Puts Strike OI Profit @ Price QQACD 20 309 3090 QQAOD 20 3040 0 QQACX 22.5 387 2902.5 QQAOX 22.5 1715 0 QQACE 25 1872 9360 QQAOE 25 4764 0 QQACF 30 8953 0 QQAOF 30 6780 0 QQACG 35 18542 0 QQAOG 35 7838 39190 QQACH 40 12209 0 QQAOH 40 1612 16120 QQACI 45 4333 0 QQAOI 45 90 1350 QQACJ 50 1930 0 QQAOJ 50 32 640 QQACK 55 941 0 QQAOK 55 2 50 QQACL 60 1310 0 QQAOL 60 0 0 Total Call 15352.5 Put 57350 Net Total 72702.5 Price - ASND 30 Make of this what you will. However, I believe this pressure is not very strong - the difference between 30 and 35 is less than $1,000,000. (or 200,000 shares) Chris