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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (21270)	3/19/1998 11:33:00 PM
From: Joe Antol	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Paul, this is a place to share information, right? Good or bad. It's the 'balance' that counts for me. Not Bull, nor Bear, just plain 'information'. Some info I haven't seen posted here (from Network World): <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 2) Novell user loyalty put to test and other top news *************************************************** Despite its core of loyal customers, Novell risks losing key accounts to rival Windows NT, a Network World survey says. DocFinder: 6219 nwfusion.com 6) Is NetWare on the way out? *************************** Our lead story this week (see above) is about the battle between NetWare and NT. Is NetWare destined to follow other NOSes (VINES and, dare we say it, OS/2) into oblivion? Or is the new Novell going to kick Microsoft back to Redmond? What do you think? DocFinder: 6224 nwfusion.com

To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (21270)	3/20/1998 8:38:00 AM
From: Spartex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Paul, I haven't done the calculations, but slowing NT sales doesn't mean they are not growing. For example, they may be slowing from a growth rate of 35%, to 25%, hence growth in NT is slowing, but you may be able to do the exact calculation to get to the $6.5 billion figure for next year from current growth rates. Is this a slowing of growth rates or not? I don't have the figures, just curious though. Regards, Quad-K

To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (21270)	3/20/1998 9:06:00 AM
From: ToySoldier	Respond to of 42771

Paul, I wonder myself where CRN got those numbers. Some of them are opposite from those have heard several times from IDC. For example, the marketshare for Groupware that I heard were Notes in first, then GroupWise, then Exchange. Yet your CRN numbers were opposite to that. These numbers all depend on what is being measured I guess. For example, is it number of nodes or post-offices? As for NT sales, two factors have skewed these figures in several figures (many times quoted by Microsoft). One is that NT sales figures sometimes do not separate workstation from server (this one really screws up the figures) and second. Its a known fact - and I am not saying this to be insulting - that for every new NetWare server required in a system, the same solution needs an additional 1 - 2 NT servers. So its not hard to believe that NT sales many times are higher than NetWare sales. (Suggestion to Schmidt - make your operating system run much slower - increases unit sales. Method of reducing performance, put a GUI front-end on your server). Sorry Paul, but I don't have access to IDC figures (one must pay for those) so I can't dispute your numbers. But I really feel they did not accurately reflect the sales going on in the industry. The numbers were either different than I have heard elsewhere or much more radical than I have heard. Schmidt could very well be right that NT growth sales are showing lag - for the reasons Quad stated. Remeber also, that much of the NT sales over the past year likely was an upgrade process from NT3.5x to NT4. This factor may be curving down now. Also, Microsoft may have done such a good job on selling the NT5 vaporware that that might be stalling some upgrade sales. Schmidt did not say that growth was in the minus. Anyways, for you Novell stock holders, have a good Bull run today! ToySoldier