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Technology Stocks : BAY Ntwks (under House) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: david jung who wrote (4930)	3/20/1998 6:02:00 AM
From: rupert1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6980

Mang: Can we asssume that those who were avidly following charts of BAY bought in at 24-26 a few weeks ago when we fundamentalists started the recent run up to 35.25? Can we assume that the same chartists sold the day after the $35.25 because it finished the previous day at $33.15/16th - lower than its high? If the charts are now neutral, as you say, with a slight downward bias, what's the point? Obviously, we shall have to wait for the fundmentalists or momentum players to do something either way so the charts can tell us what has been done. In my view, all the charts can tell us is what people have done; there is no doubt that price movement and the volume or lack of volume underpinning it should be a factor in calculating what might happen next. But it is not the preominant factor. Frankly, it makes sense to me that BAY might drift around a bit now in either direction, simply because until earnings, its valuation is uncertain. On the other hand, there may be players out there who are prepared to pay for future value given the strong indications from management about the next and subsequent quarters. If I knew what was going to happen I might buy or sell. It would'nt matter to me whether I got to know through fundamental analysis or charts. But I don't know - the charts cannot tell me and fundamental analysis calls for a short period of uncertainty with an optimistic bias. Overriding these considerations are worries about the general market valuations. Perhaps some of the bellweather companies in the tech sector are overvalued on a fundamental basis and their correction will affect sentiment for others, such as BAY. Hope you do well with COMS next week. Victor