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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: paulmcg0 who wrote (15182)	3/20/1998 10:28:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Paul; Somehow you just gave me an idea, this eve I'm going to do a random scan of stock options a sort of dart board survey, without punching in any I've been tracking or even looking at their trend..what I'll be trying to size up is just how many put/call open interest expire worthless.. ------------------------- I know on SI the option talk is predominatly towards buying puts..at least what I've run into..sure there is some call talk..but nothing as much as put talk..personally my experance shows me more money is in buying calls. Maybe it's the angle I've look at things that has made my call bets pay off better than my put bets, for sure I bet both ways now, but was also under the put buying spell for some time until I got tired of losing money and tried a few calls, lo and behold the calls started hitting pay dirt.. ----------------------------- I'm not hung up on them and bet a lot less on options than I once did, I toss out all but what I consider the ones with extreamly good odds ( that being just out of the money ones that have already sold a big glob at much higher prices, were I'm exploiting the pain thoes suckers feel , and the tendancy for them to grab at a straw, if the stock reverses they try to average down on their options. ) ------------------------------ In short all the other option hype aside you find a gang of lossers and get in well under them..that is the option that offers the best odds of moving enough to make money and over come all the skewed spreads of the floor traders, and the commissions. ) Another way of saying it..is that option will move more in price for a move in the stock price than the one on the other side of the money. If it has more losers in it, be it a call or put. I use to wonder when say a call or put out of the money but on equal sides of the strike, did not always move percentage wise the same with moves in the stock, and sometimes it was a lot. I conclude it's the "market OI we are dealing in." each one has it's own market supply/demand and as with any option trade it's like para-mutual betting, Here my old race track experance kicked in and I began to see the light, and the hidden "tote" board. ------------------------------ I might not should say this but I will take any one to the dog track by the hand and let them watch me lay bets.. and give me 3 full programs..and bet them any amout they want that out of the bets I lay over the three (12 race) events I will make at least 5%..( average is 15% ) ---------------------------- You might say well why don't I just live at the race track? well the way I bet ( needing odds ) I might only bet 1 to 5 races out of each event..rarely do I get enoung odds to bet 6 races. Then when I do get the odds..because of how para-mutual betting works if I bet my high odds very heavy I kill the odds on the "tote" board to were I no longer have the good odds..so the amount one can bet is very limited with out shooting yourself in the foot. My system can let me win (just playing in the win pool) about 200 to 300 a week , more than that it breaks down. Other expence and the time it takes makes it only good for recreation.. as I live a long way from the track, to lay off track bets is no good as the local bookies want a 10% cut of winnings and that just about would kill it, on top of that when they see me getting ahead they then jump on my bets enough to upset the balance. On one hand I get a little charge out of knowing that when I leave the track I at least beat 85% of the crowd on most days..it sure cost me a bundle before I learned to play the "tote" board, ( the crowd is what you need to bet against ) but only when they miss or "over bet some favorets, to under bet a good one ) ----------------------------- Being I've gone this far I'l add I did all the handicaping styles there is, and can pick about as many winners as the next good handicapper..but picking winners don't cut it if you don't get odds. It takes a long time for most people to learn when to pass up a sure thing. My style now at the track is much more relaxed and most pros would laugh at it..I don't over handicap the dogs any more, I mostly just use the silly morning line picks..but wait till the crowd leaves one of them going off at double or better the moring line odds. There is much more to this than I'v got time to explain but armed with all the handicapping books, I did notice they all tend to do a top down style, but if you do a bottom up you find there is a random factor that no one can account for, and the best of the top down systems miss that, and it's why you need better odds than the crowd is generally willing to let go of, but they do at times, here locally Sat night and the joe six pks makes for the better times to go. ---------------------------------- How I managed to work this into my style of playing options is hard to explain and could take a book. But untill I did I didn't win at options, and looking at the amount that expired in the past I'm sure that 80 to 85% of he option players are losers..as I discovered that I felt a little better, but had enongh sense to back off, and toss all the books on systems away, and develope my own. I have not lost an option bet in better than 9 months now. ( but i don't make many ) As good as WDCDW looked the other day, I passed it up..no regrets even though it won nicely..I wanted better odds and didn't get them. You can't let the shouldacouldawoulda bother you and still stick with a system that works. I did all the doggones and ifihada stuff just for show, but I was serious about not posting any more likely winners untill after I lay my bet..I know there are 20 lukers for every writer on SI..and can't help but wonder the way that damm thing run up if some one didn't do to me what the off track bookies do when they see you winning. Jim ---------------