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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: van wang who wrote (9798)	3/20/1998 2:35:00 PM
From: Linda Kaplan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213176

Van: You are amazing! Are you an economist, too, or just an overall genius? I hope you're over your shivers now, too. That was so funny. AAPL has gone down a bit for you. How could it resist? :-) Linda

To: van wang who wrote (9798)	3/21/1998 11:30:00 PM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 213176

>u dont apply CAPM...by plug and >chug...after awhile you disregard beta...u >use your own rate of return from your own >judgement...using beta and historical >measures is static...free yourself from the >book and start projecting interest rates, >current risk and growth to determine proper >value. Yes I am using it as one benchmark. For example using analysts forecasts and an earnings based CAPM I find that Nat. Semi. and Global Marine (GLM) are two of the most undervalued stocks. However, I think it is the analysts forecasts for earnings that are not up to date. So far the CAPM theory has though made me money on Apple and Chase Manhattan - but I don't rely on it alone. Also I take back my negative remarks on William Sharpe. After looking into this I find that the dividends model is the only theoretically consistent model. However, on a dividends basis the US market is currently outrageously priced while on an earnings basis it seems fair value. Valuation on earnings eventually does come unstuck because the rate of return investors get will not match what they expected when they bought. Is this a major cause of stock-market instability and crashes? David