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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: craig crawford who wrote (14567)	3/20/1998 12:26:00 PM
From: mr.mark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

that smart money piece seems to have puffed somebody up... hey! how about a career with thestreet.com? you can be the columnist that does nothing but lobs shots at 3com! they could do television commercials about the trader that lives in a basement! it may be sunday on wall street, but it's time to disparage 3com in craig's basement! blah blah blah yup! mr.mark

To: craig crawford who wrote (14567)	3/20/1998 1:53:00 PM
From: joe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 45548

<Shorts don't just keep a $12 billion dollar stock like COMS down. If their prospects were really that good $$ would find it's way into the stock and the shorts would be forced to cover.> I figure shorts are enough to pull the price down an extra 5-10pts minimum. Of course the stock went down at around 55, MMs sensed that the inventory was out of control, and started leaving, then shorts climbed all over it (in rememberance of Feb of '97). This forced weaker hands to sell some more. And the shorts (in short) were all in control. ( I guess I define this as over negativity). Maybe without shorts, the stock would be at about 38-40 right now, still down, but not as much. Seems like there's more shorts, than bargain hunters for this stock - so the price can't push up much. Seems COMS has a rep as 'the stock' to short. Hardly one word about anything good about the company from shorts (for example yourself). I think that's close to a crowd leaning too much in one direction. Yes, big money is not in yet (maybe a little bit of the value/bargain hunters this month, due to no pre-announcement). I figure it's because they want to see the 'inventory problem' completely cleaned up. They don't want to just take Eric B's word for it. Personally, I think COMS is getting there, but I am waiting to see if it's at least 95-100% cleaned up. Also, big money (of whom many I don't think really understand high tech very well), are looking at the 56K modem market very carefully. These guys want to get in, but are waiting for more concrete proof that COMS can profit by modems. I'm confident they can. The question is when, not if. Also, more importantly (which relates to the 'inventory problem'), is that the Network Sector is in a big transition to new hardware, and new technologies. So big money is probably cautious to see where the next direction for network techology is going. I think they're even uncertain about CSCO, but stick with it because it has a lot of clout, good rep, and good connections. There is the possibility that csco's fortune's may change. Tech is a dangerous world. The only sure thing is that the Internet/bandwith problem is some company's (hopefully many) big pot of gold. <Second of all funds don't short stocks like COMS heavily unless they are pretty sure the company has problems.> Yes, very true. The major problem is not, "are Eric B. and the rest of the gang cheating at the game, or are they incompetent". The problem,is can COMS make a profit in the new Networking environment with all the competition and the new techology. I believe so, base on their quality (IMO) and technical expertise. Also, I like Eric B's strategy of not competing with CSCO directly. The SOHO sector will be huge in the future. Also, Europe will catch on fire some time, and Asia will recover. COMS is taking the long term for all of this. <COMS is not going to blow the street away with their numbers. It is only a question of how much bad news is priced into the stock and all the shorts cover on the bad news driving it higher.> I don't think they'll blow away the street with their numbers. (IMO) They're poker players - why show their hand now. It's too early. They haven't had enough time to profit from V.90 modems, and their new line of products. On the other hand, I don't think they want to disappoint. They may be able to beat the estimates easily, but they probably don't want show that. A heck of a lot of bad news has been priced in. A lot of it just plain not trusting anything COMS says. I guess there could be some new horrendous news - but worse than .04c and .14c? That kind of badness is hard to beat. Maybe the transition to new products is much, much, more difficult than anybody imagined is my worry. >There comes a point where no matter how much bad news unfolds the stock holds a certain level. MOT always screws up yet people come back again and again. HWP always misses it's earnings by a few cents and people still push it higher. IBM and others just buy back shares with their cash and people buy that too. DEC stopped going down on bad news after a while. INTC has had some crummy quarters recently but it's not off it's highs too much.> MOT, HWP, IBM, and INTC, are much larger companies. They have more control of these situations. For one thing, the competition problem that COMS has is more easily handled by bigger market leading companies - so there is the idea that money will flow to safer ports in times of turmoil (which is what tech sector is going through now). <I think COMS, BAY, and A$ND are all bombed out and they would have to really disappoint to scare people out of them now. Or the market will have to crack which will happen soon enough.> Yes, I agree. The market could crack. I think this is the next most dangerous thing after the 'network transition problem'. But, for the moment, it looks like there is a huge supply of $$ in the market, interest rates are low (I think they'll go lower), and so recent market hieghts will somehow hold up. (Hard to believe, but I think that's the trend). Plus MMs may be 'counting' on a European revival. Joe