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Technology Stocks : Y2K (Year 2000) Stocks: An Investment Discussion -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard K. who wrote (10316)	3/20/1998 1:52:00 PM
From: Colin Christie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13949

Report from SPG YEAR 2000 Conference in New York... Dr. Ed Yardeni delivered morning key note. Here are some quotes of interest: --On the new fed. gov't Y2K council head: "Koskinen says he wants to be a nice guy, and doesn't want a big staff... what we need is not a Y2K conversion council, we need a Y2K war council, and they don't need a small staff, give them the entire pentagon. We need a leader who can shoot dep't heads who don't get the job done." --On the retirement of 5 of the top Y2K IT officials at the Defense Department: "this is like the canaries in the mines, when the canaries die, the air is bad!" --On the likely impact of FAA problems: "....25-50% cut back in flights likely." --On the failure to date of the FAA to replace its 40 IBM-3083 mainframes: "What are they planning to do, go back to using pin-up maps and ham-radios?" --On the GAO report: "Y2K-speak is rubbish...what are 'mission-critical' systems, and who decides?...some IT guy??!" --What other major corp. managers are telling Dr. Ed...but are not willing to disclose publically--their lawyers have them on a gag order: "Head of major money-center bank: "we're not even close" " "Head of major hospital chain: "we're planning to shut down all our smaller clinics, and move staff to the larger hospitals...we plan to do this in time for the 9/9/99 problem." "Defense dep't employee: things are much worse than the GAO and Rep. Horn reports indicate" ...and what does Dr. Ed forecast the market impacts to be? See next message! --

To: Richard K. who wrote (10316)	3/20/1998 2:00:00 PM
From: Colin Christie	Respond to of 13949

..More from the floor of the SPG Year 2000 Conference today-- Dr Ed Yardeni forecast for 2000 problem: "60% chance of GLOBAL recession, magnitude like '73-4 recession or larger" "Recession in 2000 will be fundamentally deflationary" "Look at Japan, 10-year bond yield is at an unprecedented level, down to 1.54%...I look at this number with great interest every day" "When the FAA problem is finally understood, the airline stocks will be in trouble." "Market reaction to recession...who can say, but remember that peak-to-trough drop in '73-4 was a 43% drop" And where to invest? "Bond yield is going to 5% this year, 4% in 1999, and 3% in 2000" Where will Dow go this year? "Dow could go to 10,000 before the drop" Where does Dr. Ed have his own money? "Zero-coupon bonds"