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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Judy who wrote (17490)3/20/1998 3:47:00 PM
From: Alias Shrugged  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 50167
 
Hello Judy,

Oh, I am still around.

Placed limit orders for NE on Tue at 23.875, 22.25 and 21.25; was filled at 23.875 only. Sold next day (or yesterday?) at 27.625.

Wish they would put in a bottom that would last more than 15 minutes!!

I still have some misc. driller holdings from last fall that I did not sell; sold calls against most of them in Jan. Have picked up some NSS (pipe guys) at 15 and 13.5 recently.

In general, drillers have been too volatile and risky, especially given market levels. Maybe funds will simply continue to rotate with no sizable drop in indices, but I am not betting alot on that.

Past six weeks, have enjoyed riding techs off their lows (KLIC, KLAC, CYMI, UTR, BMC, EFII, etc., etc.). Money seems to be now rotating out of techs.

By the way, you made a great call several months back - calling the tech bottom. Hope things are going well for you.

Do you ever play on the short side? besides selling covered calls?

Mike



To: Judy who wrote (17490)3/20/1998 6:37:00 PM
From: Philip H. Lee  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 50167
 
Judy,

Thanks for the heads up on the oil service sector.
Btw, look at those utilities!! In 2 months, some of my calls (bought at 1/4 pt or so) are up 8-fold with three months still left until expiration. We are seeing real acceleration as the we near the March 31 California deregulation. The sector now has very good momentum, and well-positioned players in the industry are going to see growth like never before.

I hope I'm not repeating this too many times, but IP telephony is going to be huge. At this very moment, you can go to net2phone.com and get as low as 5 cents a minute to anywhere in the USA. Save a significant amount on intl calls. No computer required; just phone-to-phone from anywhere. net2phone.com Net2Phone is probably the most popular IP telephony provider; it's owned by IDT Corporation, which has a $640 million market cap.

Corporations are flocking to establish their own VoIP networks to save on voice costs. The impact in emerging markets, where the greatest savings could be gained, can be huge. A new group of NextGen telcos is springing up almost overnight, and most people have barely noticed. pulver.com:80/nextgen/
VocalNet's IP telephony gateway appears to be have a strong market share in the NextGen telco market.

Philip

VoIP = Voice over Internet Protocol

Disclaimer: Invest at your own risk. Do your own research. Information provided for discussion purposes only and not to be construed as investment advice.



To: Judy who wrote (17490)3/22/1998 8:12:00 PM
From: Judy  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 50167
 
Oil driller/service stocks have found bottom (con't)

To continue the thoughts of last Friday:

Message 3783284

Since Friday's close of market, OPEC has decided to cut the production of crude for the rest of '98. Hence the oil driller/service stocks should see further upside momentum. As for whether this will last or fade, the momentum should subside and the stocks retrace down and consolidate. Reliable bases/bottoms are not formed in a single day or week and take time. I'd expect the sector to consolidate and the trading ranges of the indiviual stocks to constrict. The key whether the bottom has set will be evidenced by low volume sells during program sells or broad market selloffs ... that shall confirm whether recent institutional buys were by value or momentum players. When value buyers step up to the bat, they do not assume overall market risk for a measly 10-15 percent rise ... value buyers hold for the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow even as the momentum buyers flee. It is the value buyers who will set the bottom for the sector.

When a sector approaches bottom, the strongest are the last to capitulate as evidenced by the recent price volume action in SLB, HAL, RIG and NE. Note the automatic dive below their 200-day ema in one fell swoop and panic buying that ensued returning them to that key level. No doubt that the price of oil will rise again and stablize, the question is when ... next week, next month, etc.