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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rocketman who wrote (4435)	3/20/1998 4:51:00 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9719

Rman asked V1: <<MOGN has a nice runup going for it. Any idea what it is based on? You still hot on holding it long?>> Yes, yes, yes is my opinion. I just added to my (already too large) holding in the dip before the recent two-day run-up. Several things happening: 1) Recent approval for Salagen for Sjogren's syndrome. The stock reacted nicely, and then gave up its gains, probably because of ... 2) Tired old holder dumped a big block of stock recently, now apparently absorbed. 3) Some very nice looking MGI-114 abstracts at the upcoming Cancer conference. (V1 will grumble that nude mice ain't people, but nobody wants to listen to him on this issue). The abstracts are posted on the MOGN thread. (Like there's even some complete responses when combined with another existing drug in a nasty human colon cancer xenograft line that existing combinations can barely slow down). 4) Speculation that a European partner for MGI-114 is in the wings, and that an advance to Phase II is close. I'll probably lighten up a little if the run continues, but that's because I'm so overweighted with it already. Peter

To: Rocketman who wrote (4435)	3/21/1998 1:17:00 AM
From: Vector1	Respond to of 9719

MOGN, Someone on the MOGN thread made a great call somehow finding that there was a 250,000 share overhang on the stock. The overhang apparently cleared yesterday. Enough technicals. From a fundamental standpoint MOGN is a great value play. Salagen which is an orphan drug is approved for two indications. Head and neck cancer and about 2 weeks ago for sojrens disease. The compound stimulates extra secrtions from salivary glands which are either damaged by radiation therapy or are affected by the bodies own defences in Sjogrens. Sjogrens is an autoimmune disease that affects in excess of 500,000 people in the US alsone. Salagen costs virtually nothing to make, so the company enjoys over 90% gross margins. On a conservative basis Salagen sales could easily be 50m in sales in 3 years. This Salagen alone is prob worth$10-15 per share. The wild card is MG114. highly effective at arresting tumors in nude mice it has been in phase I this past year and there clearly are some toxicity issues. However it could be a home run. In addition there are a number of drug delivery products in the pipline of other companies that could use the drug if the side effects kill the phase II. An example is Matrix which could use the compound. All in all as long as the stock is in single digits it's prob the best risk reward in the porfolio. V1