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Technology Stocks : VLSI Technology - Waiting for good news from NASDAQ !!! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DanZ who wrote (3218)	3/20/1998 8:01:00 PM
From: Kevin Hay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6565

I'm back, long @ 17 3/8. Besides the apparently strong support where we're at, my main reason is that I think VLSI is due to surprise on the upside. If not in eps, then on outlook. Anecdotely there's CLST, a cellular distributor, that just reported earnings 0.02 above consensus. a) this gives evidence that the 'inventory adjustment' line we've heard is true, as I know CLST's inventory had been getting huge, and that cellular demand remains strong. However, I'm braced to average down. 16 won't surprise me too much, and I think the market will have to really tank to see 15. TGIF..., -Kevin

To: DanZ who wrote (3218)	3/20/1998 10:25:00 PM
From: Joe C.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6565

Dan, 17 ish today, 15 on the down side, 22 on the up side are reasonable likely numbers - 2 down versus 5 up - seems like its' worth the risk short term. Long term (early next year) we're looking at high 20's (let's say 10 points to 27 ish). That's 60% return -sounds high - let's take off 10% and make it a round 50%. That's 10 years' worth of interest for a bank CD. Now let's take a real bad scenario - say they lose Ericson all together or the market corrects, drops to book value (I seem to remember 12 - not sure), they've shown they can get out of bad situations (i.e. pc market) to move to more profitable areas (DVDR, etc.). Every way I look at the numbers I see more reward then there is risk. These numbers are pure gut instinct, unlike your TA (great posts by the way), totally unscientific, emotion filled reasoning which is probably somewhat influenced - in a subconscious sort of way - by all the posts/articles/analysis that I've read. However, the bottom line in my opinion is how could you not invest in this company? Joe C.